{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6e1794c-fecb-4fa6-b87a-227331bcde78", "symbol": "WIN", "name": "Winton Land Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.067, "architecture_energy": 92.559, "architecture_maturity": 72.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.824, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 8.42, "upward_expansion": 21.79, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 86.76, "downward_expansion": 99.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.161333, 1.261818, 1.421024, 1.545022 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.13, "trend_reference": 1.704333, "distance_from_trend": -0.336984, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.052423, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.449431, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.620149, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.420513, "excess_performance": -0.448786, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.336984, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127995, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.449431, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.282283, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.426201, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27533, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.420513, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.377918, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 160099, "relative_activity": 3.466813, "balance": 0.377918, "dry_up": 1.599681, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066031, "annualized_volatility": 0.280931, "from_high_reference": -0.546185, "from_low_reference": 0.027273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.704333, "fair_value_reference": 2.052423, "structural_low": 1.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.026042, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.042456, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.208791, "worst_return": -0.185714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020508, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015721, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.162304, "worst_return": -0.170984, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.067943, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.013006, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.108108, "worst_return": 0.027778, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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2.076664, "relative_strength": -39.323592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -96.412825, "energy": 85.197521, "activity_lines": [ 1.344667, 1.428545, 1.564429, 1.668613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.14, "volume": 10729, "typical_volume": 38371.6, "trend": 1.775667, "fair_value": 2.069217, "relative_strength": -43.090634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -96.067659, "energy": 97.101018, "activity_lines": [ 1.260667, 1.364909, 1.512786, 1.625495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.14, "volume": 52415, "typical_volume": 39160.4, "trend": 1.741667, "fair_value": 2.060504, "relative_strength": -42.180357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.014444, "energy": 93.571873, "activity_lines": [ 1.201333, 1.309636, 1.465238, 1.584484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.13, "volume": 160099, "typical_volume": 46180.45, "trend": 1.704333, "fair_value": 2.052423, "relative_strength": -42.620149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.067354, "energy": 92.559242, "activity_lines": [ 1.161333, 1.261818, 1.421024, 1.545022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }