{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6e51d05-3317-4cc6-a390-a73e09e436a6", "symbol": "NEON", "name": "Neonode Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.521, "architecture_energy": 52.948, "architecture_maturity": 45.107, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.49, "rotation_up": 21.24, "upward_expansion": 8.41, "deceleration": 56.09, "rotation_down": 58.07, "downward_expansion": 81.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.87628, 0.91214, 1.152165, 1.273229 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.967, "trend_reference": 1.440157, "distance_from_trend": -0.328545, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.417402, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.821501, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -75.466478, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.468681, "excess_performance": -0.656135, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.328545, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201244, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.821501, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109717, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.754665, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076074, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.468681, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.379503, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 573926, "relative_activity": 0.702892, "balance": 0.379503, "dry_up": 0.648643, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.266315, "annualized_volatility": 0.812968, "from_high_reference": -0.964119, "from_low_reference": 0.341751 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.440157, "fair_value_reference": 5.417402, "structural_low": 0.7207, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.056738, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.040723, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.721805, "worst_return": -0.52518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.096185, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.049629, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.732394, "worst_return": -0.657074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.159624, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.037449, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.201117, "worst_return": -0.50152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.298381, "energy": 84.45008, "activity_lines": [ 0.894267, 1.082436, 1.292733, 1.397987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.7756, "volume": 544667, "typical_volume": 832402.15, "trend": 1.504187, "fair_value": 5.432215, "relative_strength": -83.676723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.100424, "energy": 79.985461, "activity_lines": [ 0.8448, 0.993818, 1.23379, 1.348499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.8421, "volume": 498207, "typical_volume": 826311.5, "trend": 1.47159, "fair_value": 5.423896, "relative_strength": -80.251824, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.578741, "energy": 63.944997, "activity_lines": [ 0.84046, 0.933007, 1.185392, 1.305784 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.967, "volume": 573926, "typical_volume": 816520.45, "trend": 1.440157, "fair_value": 5.417402, "relative_strength": -75.466478, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.520634, "energy": 52.947584, "activity_lines": [ 0.87628, 0.91214, 1.152165, 1.273229 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }