{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6e58aa0-9b9e-4842-aad6-c57cbc6d2bbb", "symbol": "NNND", "name": "Tencent Holdings Limited", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 64.684, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 29.35, "architecture_energy": 41.04, "architecture_maturity": 14.524, "architecture_confidence": 51.878, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.54, "rotation_up": 60.89, "upward_expansion": 49.47, "deceleration": 20.51, "rotation_down": 18.85, "downward_expansion": 24.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.064667, 50.986455, 49.900993, 49.923198 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 53.68, "trend_reference": 50.807138, "distance_from_trend": 0.056544, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 43.368524, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.237764, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.916561, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.00325, "excess_performance": -0.177497, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056544, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06403, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.237764, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149814, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219166, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093392, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00325, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.452202, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62, "relative_activity": 0.658874, "balance": 0.452202, "dry_up": 1.926142, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061059, "annualized_volatility": 0.357256, "from_high_reference": -0.19844, "from_low_reference": 0.207914 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.807138, "fair_value_reference": 43.368524, "structural_low": 44.440258, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.034246, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.010236, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.20508, "worst_return": -0.094264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.058794, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.053403, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.100189, "worst_return": -0.172859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.086935, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.03505, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.334857, "worst_return": -0.245967, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077411, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.038035, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.238823, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034787, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11254, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", 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49.559001, 49.20316, 48.933254, 49.857195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.790001, "volume": 185, "typical_volume": 104.5, "trend": 51.643218, "fair_value": 42.964323, "relative_strength": -22.883776, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.619656, "energy": 8.2107, "activity_lines": [ 50.334668, 49.752455, 49.179397, 49.847699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.810001, "volume": 420, "typical_volume": 113.85, "trend": 51.315002, "fair_value": 43.072488, "relative_strength": -27.801767, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.813897, "energy": 14.335816, "activity_lines": [ 50.068334, 49.643728, 49.133776, 49.664911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.669998, "volume": 58, "typical_volume": 91.0, "trend": 51.031546, "fair_value": 43.213722, "relative_strength": -21.599126, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.934986, "energy": 24.929768, "activity_lines": [ 51.091333, 50.263182, 49.464143, 49.75233 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.68, "volume": 62, "typical_volume": 94.1, "trend": 50.807138, "fair_value": 43.368524, "relative_strength": -21.916561, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.350487, "energy": 41.039556, "activity_lines": [ 52.064667, 50.986455, 49.900993, 49.923198 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }