{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6fbd199-d6ec-4731-b311-b6ac026da11e", "symbol": "XEMC", "name": "XTRACKERS (IE) PUBLIC LIMITED C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.283, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.263, "architecture_energy": 21.165, "architecture_maturity": 64.939, "architecture_confidence": 80.25, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.29, "rotation_up": 22.41, "upward_expansion": 50.21, "deceleration": 82.31, "rotation_down": 41.3, "downward_expansion": 28.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.725, 54.748, 54.828774, 53.711903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 54.884998, "trend_reference": 52.3095, "distance_from_trend": 0.049236, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.533741, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.388308, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.888434, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.098854, "excess_performance": 0.047619, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049236, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068851, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.388308, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08379, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038884, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140878, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098854, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.265426, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 336, "relative_activity": 0.012736, "balance": 0.265426, "dry_up": 0.089105, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043567, "annualized_volatility": 0.282391, "from_high_reference": -0.067137, "from_low_reference": 0.346706 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.3095, "fair_value_reference": 39.533741, "structural_low": 45.77, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.052662, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.04426, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.13883, "worst_return": 0.043675, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.149956, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.090883, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.232109, "worst_return": 0.067802, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.221335, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.14881, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.221335, "worst_return": 0.221335, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.2233, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004636, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.027534, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.13883, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00331, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005957, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-11-03", "close": 29.809999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-11-10", "close": 29.5525, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-11-17", "close": 30.365, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }