{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6fda4d2-e159-4b13-ae99-7ef58de4b6ef", "symbol": "XSPR", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Europe Materials Screened UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.42, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.096, "architecture_energy": 24.131, "architecture_maturity": 47.919, "architecture_confidence": 77.685, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.22, "rotation_up": 41.57, "upward_expansion": 62.36, "deceleration": 80.82, "rotation_down": 29.13, "downward_expansion": 19.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 15143.0, 15110.436364, 15118.057143, 14999.165591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 15615.0, "trend_reference": 14888.433333, "distance_from_trend": 0.048801, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13759.731796, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.134833, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.306726, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.046652, "excess_performance": -0.004583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048801, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021732, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.134833, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035358, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013067, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011191, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046652, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.25271, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43, "relative_activity": 0.041959, "balance": 5.25271, "dry_up": 0.311524, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027012, "annualized_volatility": 0.209413, "from_high_reference": -0.045996, "from_low_reference": 0.205985 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14888.433333, "fair_value_reference": 13759.731796, "structural_low": 12947.926758, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.004767, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.015454, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.073605, "worst_return": -0.1589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.01048, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.007522, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.112733, "worst_return": -0.045176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.00217, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.000685, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.120035, "worst_return": -0.077936, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 23.623758, "energy": 17.252327, "activity_lines": [ 15078.0, 15184.090909, 15037.985714, 14938.045161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14707.0, "volume": 317, "typical_volume": 1058.25, "trend": 14816.8, "fair_value": 13702.263847, "relative_strength": -4.884663, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.602468, "energy": 18.203867, "activity_lines": [ 14919.466667, 15099.145455, 15023.442857, 14931.873118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14839.0, "volume": 158, "typical_volume": 1066.1, "trend": 14832.9, "fair_value": 13717.860001, "relative_strength": -5.018672, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.840408, "energy": 20.242407, "activity_lines": [ 14858.666667, 15040.490909, 15025.433333, 14933.305376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15095.0, "volume": 759, "typical_volume": 1074.3, "trend": 14856.266667, "fair_value": 13736.411283, "relative_strength": -4.429238, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.274593, "energy": 17.66577, "activity_lines": [ 14916.266667, 15027.127273, 15049.97619, 14950.215054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15615.0, "volume": 43, "typical_volume": 1024.8, "trend": 14888.433333, "fair_value": 13759.731796, "relative_strength": -1.306726, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.096368, "energy": 24.130911, "activity_lines": [ 15143.0, 15110.436364, 15118.057143, 14999.165591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }