{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7009d01-377b-48cb-809b-9abe422b7647", "symbol": "256440", "name": "KINDEX MSCI Indonesia ETF(Synth)", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.456, "architecture_energy": 55.56, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.017, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.3, "rotation_up": 29.28, "upward_expansion": 10.27, "deceleration": 60.74, "rotation_down": 49.64, "downward_expansion": 83.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 5426.333333, 5448.909091, 5725.380952, 6142.580645 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5485.0, "trend_reference": 6774.5, "distance_from_trend": -0.190346, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9005.846088, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.390951, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.422296, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.33716, "excess_performance": -0.566989, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.190346, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143279, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.390951, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106649, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.454223, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12497, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.33716, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.735983, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 461278, "relative_activity": 1.541427, "balance": 0.735983, "dry_up": 1.313363, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06935, "annualized_volatility": 0.296478, "from_high_reference": -0.402534, "from_low_reference": 0.065049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6774.5, "fair_value_reference": 9005.846088, "structural_low": 5150.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.013613, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.00253, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.089109, "worst_return": -0.216296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.013037, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.13256, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.199871, "worst_return": -0.232059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.04188, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.037421, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.210832, "worst_return": -0.125711, 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false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.073978, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059853, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016394, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079303, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05946, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 5438.333333, 5527.363636, 5974.97619, 6445.726882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5465.0, "volume": 302375, "typical_volume": 270820.4, "trend": 6995.5, "fair_value": 9074.184141, "relative_strength": -51.243016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.587704, "energy": 62.540612, "activity_lines": [ 5433.666667, 5494.363636, 5884.809524, 6340.129032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5335.0, "volume": 640617, "typical_volume": 291136.45, "trend": 6886.5, "fair_value": 9039.964947, "relative_strength": -50.64059, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.628595, "energy": 62.773645, "activity_lines": [ 5403.333333, 5453.272727, 5792.904762, 6233.0 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5485.0, "volume": 461278, "typical_volume": 299253.9, "trend": 6774.5, "fair_value": 9005.846088, "relative_strength": -45.422296, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.456048, "energy": 55.560274, "activity_lines": [ 5426.333333, 5448.909091, 5725.380952, 6142.580645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }