{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c703f95c-8f64-4340-bbbb-63222911d1b7",
    "symbol": "RAAX",
    "name": "VANECK REAL ASSETS ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 78.806,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -12.231,
    "architecture_energy": 12.335,
    "architecture_maturity": 29.98,
    "architecture_confidence": 74.187,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 50.05,
        "rotation_up": 30.4,
        "upward_expansion": 21.73,
        "deceleration": 69.01,
        "rotation_down": 38.45,
        "downward_expansion": 37.73
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        39.935333,
        39.862182,
        40.368619,
        40.502796
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 40.54,
    "trend_reference": 40.390667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.003697,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 30.475309,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.330257,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -3.76952,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.031552,
    "excess_performance": -0.094073,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.003697,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.044366,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.330257,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.116663,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.037695,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.101948,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.031552,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.425233,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1445581,
      "relative_activity": 1.066521,
      "balance": 0.425233,
      "dry_up": 1.142717,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.029766,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.112999,
      "from_high_reference": -0.051696,
      "from_low_reference": 0.311892
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 40.390667,
      "fair_value_reference": 30.475309,
      "structural_low": 38.66,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.021417,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.042391,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.021417,
        "worst_return": 0.021417,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.019769,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.042952,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.019769,
        "worst_return": -0.019769,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.05255,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.045274,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.05255,
        "worst_return": 0.05255,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.049414,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.097516,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.049414,
        "worst_return": 0.049414,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2023-07-28",
        "end": "2023-08-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.007036,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-08-18",
        "end": "2023-08-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.008239,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-09-01",
        "end": "2023-09-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.001143,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-09-22",
        "end": "2023-10-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.047564,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-10-13",
        "end": "2023-12-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.031665,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-29",
        "end": "2024-02-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.029366,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-02-09",
        "end": "2024-03-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.049993,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-15",
        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.02747,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.027642,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-19",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.024273,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.062326,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2026-06-05",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.411065,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-06-12",
        "end": "2026-07-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.039426,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-17",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.030765,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 23.583179,
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        "typical_volume": 158292.35,
        "trend": 23.355575,
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 29.867519,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 1306278.85,
        "trend": 39.663634,
        "fair_value": 29.971059,
        "relative_strength": -2.510394,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 1325011.95,
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        "fair_value": 30.071384,
        "relative_strength": -3.630743,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -30.11589,
        "energy": 47.436189,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 39.33,
        "volume": 1991263,
        "typical_volume": 1358340.7,
        "trend": 39.964348,
        "fair_value": 30.168589,
        "relative_strength": -2.553037,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -30.00256,
        "energy": 53.568518,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.486,
          39.968,
          40.563762,
          40.516001
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 40.12,
        "volume": 1582396,
        "typical_volume": 1341313.5,
        "trend": 40.111667,
        "fair_value": 30.270502,
        "relative_strength": -0.157108,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -32.237608,
        "energy": 36.901062,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.658667,
          39.912909,
          40.500238,
          40.526043
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 39.46,
        "volume": 1176193,
        "typical_volume": 1332987.7,
        "trend": 40.248667,
        "fair_value": 30.369611,
        "relative_strength": -2.949271,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -34.020104,
        "energy": 29.65988,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.605333,
          39.769455,
          40.379476,
          40.484
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 40.54,
        "volume": 1445581,
        "typical_volume": 1355417.75,
        "trend": 40.390667,
        "fair_value": 30.475309,
        "relative_strength": -3.76952,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -12.230509,
        "energy": 12.334971,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.935333,
          39.862182,
          40.368619,
          40.502796
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}