{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c70b8536-bf11-4650-9d4e-fafa7c20161b", "symbol": "USSRI", "name": "UBS MSCI USA Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.512, "architecture_energy": 65.23, "architecture_maturity": 89.472, "architecture_confidence": 63.891, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.63, "rotation_up": 50.96, "upward_expansion": 78.5, "deceleration": 71.4, "rotation_down": 29.84, "downward_expansion": 16.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.233, 25.193273, 24.775214, 24.103882 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.834999, "trend_reference": 23.361167, "distance_from_trend": 0.105895, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.780273, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.306099, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.828556, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.176457, "excess_performance": 0.093574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.105895, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046991, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.306099, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037713, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028286, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050181, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.176457, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.370395, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41210, "relative_activity": 0.649812, "balance": 1.370395, "dry_up": 1.094022, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018609, "annualized_volatility": 0.140434, "from_high_reference": -0.003856, "from_low_reference": 0.27172 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.361167, "fair_value_reference": 19.780273, "structural_low": 20.315001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.012135, "positive_rate": 0.676471, "directional_follow_through": 0.676471, "median_excess_return": 0.002353, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.066176, "worst_return": -0.076133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.040102, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.024582, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.083594, "worst_return": -0.109078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.082777, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.004171, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.15989, "worst_return": -0.18471, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011839, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038288, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.005709, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009312, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005888, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.186201, "energy": 76.628516, "activity_lines": [ 25.311333, 25.084818, 24.186286, 23.592344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.889999, "volume": 129171, "typical_volume": 72583.1, "trend": 23.0815, "fair_value": 19.597106, "relative_strength": 0.410807, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.020388, "energy": 65.475713, "activity_lines": [ 25.205666, 25.092272, 24.3355, 23.715064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.690001, "volume": 37625, "typical_volume": 67491.8, "trend": 23.162333, "fair_value": 19.653876, "relative_strength": -0.242617, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.728632, "energy": 59.739951, "activity_lines": [ 25.036333, 25.048091, 24.45169, 23.818839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.995001, "volume": 69518, "typical_volume": 66551.15, "trend": 23.2495, "fair_value": 19.713472, "relative_strength": 0.894182, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.588439, "energy": 52.921266, "activity_lines": [ 24.999, 25.049455, 24.582238, 23.937075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.834999, "volume": 41210, "typical_volume": 63418.3, "trend": 23.361167, "fair_value": 19.780273, "relative_strength": 2.828556, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.511867, "energy": 65.230233, "activity_lines": [ 25.233, 25.193273, 24.775214, 24.103882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }