{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c70c82a3-f4b6-4e31-b613-519c2ed8383a", "symbol": "HKY", "name": "Havila Kystruten AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 51.751, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.263, "architecture_energy": 21.414, "architecture_maturity": 38.293, "architecture_confidence": 78.645, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.04, "rotation_up": 28.77, "upward_expansion": 54.94, "deceleration": 89.89, "rotation_down": 24.73, "downward_expansion": 18.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.366667, 57.718182, 56.249524, 55.095376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 57.5, "trend_reference": 54.188333, "distance_from_trend": 0.061114, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.092372, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.171261, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.941423, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.068773, "excess_performance": -0.05622, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061114, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004505, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.171261, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.286306, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109414, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.187893, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068773, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.344928, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2074, "relative_activity": 0.226125, "balance": 5.344928, "dry_up": 0.680748, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06903, "annualized_volatility": 0.292641, "from_high_reference": -0.169675, "from_low_reference": 0.263736 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.188333, "fair_value_reference": 49.092372, "structural_low": 45.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.031213, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.134295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.187259, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.180433, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.093906, "worst_return": -0.280612, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.13176, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.237339, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.10102, "worst_return": -0.1625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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33.683625, "activity_lines": [ 57.8, 57.9, 55.238095, 54.466236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.0, "volume": 7090, "typical_volume": 9922.0, "trend": 54.088333, "fair_value": 49.186923, "relative_strength": -12.150434, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.912, "energy": 29.303392, "activity_lines": [ 57.466667, 57.890909, 55.556667, 54.656236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.5, "volume": 9978, "typical_volume": 9921.2, "trend": 54.105, "fair_value": 49.12282, "relative_strength": -11.234237, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.083182, "energy": 24.182443, "activity_lines": [ 57.433333, 57.863636, 55.912381, 54.876344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.5, "volume": 2074, "typical_volume": 9171.9, "trend": 54.188333, "fair_value": 49.092372, "relative_strength": -10.941423, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.263185, "energy": 21.413638, "activity_lines": [ 57.366667, 57.718182, 56.249524, 55.095376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }