{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7123224-5a4a-4a5c-9fb0-6b5054278fa7", "symbol": "688276", "name": "Changchun BCHT Biotechnology Co.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.851, "architecture_energy": 33.372, "architecture_maturity": 83.227, "architecture_confidence": 83.895, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.09, "rotation_up": 27.13, "upward_expansion": 17.19, "deceleration": 46.95, "rotation_down": 31.6, "downward_expansion": 62.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.908667, 14.695273, 15.35281, 16.136667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.61, "trend_reference": 17.277333, "distance_from_trend": -0.096504, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.351431, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.485691, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.682886, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.230656, "excess_performance": -0.187452, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096504, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107238, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.485691, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024289, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186829, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006383, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.230656, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.477567, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10428680, "relative_activity": 1.241449, "balance": 0.477567, "dry_up": 1.338065, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075248, "annualized_volatility": 0.271337, "from_high_reference": -0.406464, "from_low_reference": 0.15203 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.277333, "fair_value_reference": 30.351431, "structural_low": 13.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.020442, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.028056, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.277098, "worst_return": -0.205067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.088673, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.074099, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.051908, "worst_return": -0.343587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.186662, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.246855, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.02728, "worst_return": -0.467061, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 7711177.45, "trend": 17.878333, "fair_value": 31.491813, "relative_strength": -27.467678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.764227, "energy": 65.354686, "activity_lines": [ 14.44, 14.880364, 16.023048, 16.867011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.74, "volume": 14403326, "typical_volume": 8110064.45, "trend": 17.708, "fair_value": 31.189851, "relative_strength": -22.111532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.65454, "energy": 58.738077, "activity_lines": [ 14.560667, 14.731636, 15.816238, 16.664538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.92, "volume": 11227519, "typical_volume": 8174042.1, "trend": 17.528333, "fair_value": 30.898466, "relative_strength": -26.661892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.385923, "energy": 57.656704, "activity_lines": [ 14.394667, 14.502182, 15.554619, 16.420151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.91, "volume": 8901650, "typical_volume": 8260485.65, "trend": 17.385667, "fair_value": 30.62527, "relative_strength": -20.957966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.355472, "energy": 43.251186, "activity_lines": [ 14.579333, 14.517636, 15.411095, 16.251226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.61, "volume": 10428680, "typical_volume": 8400411.0, "trend": 17.277333, "fair_value": 30.351431, "relative_strength": -18.682886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.851309, "energy": 33.371684, "activity_lines": [ 14.908667, 14.695273, 15.35281, 16.136667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }