{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c7123e0b-2def-4efb-b9c0-7285a5a4ecd3",
    "symbol": "PDC",
    "name": "Invesco Canadian Dividend Index ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 67.477,
    "architecture_energy": 66.407,
    "architecture_maturity": 85.197,
    "architecture_confidence": 82.473,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 11.12,
        "rotation_up": 59.81,
        "upward_expansion": 87.67,
        "deceleration": 65.8,
        "rotation_down": 27.95,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        48.819551,
        47.698828
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 49.5,
    "trend_reference": 46.130557,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.073041,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 35.252177,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.404169,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 1.386603,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.162176,
    "excess_performance": 0.041754,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.073041,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.065783,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.404169,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.029454,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.013866,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003015,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.162176,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.134663,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 10700,
      "relative_activity": 1.174533,
      "balance": 1.134663,
      "dry_up": 0.845225,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.017279,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.0962,
      "from_high_reference": -0.029018,
      "from_low_reference": 0.354624
    },
    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 35.252177,
      "structural_low": 42.533221,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 40,
        "median_return": 0.013989,
        "positive_rate": 0.725,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.725,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000811,
        "regime_survival": 0.775,
        "best_return": 0.054952,
        "worst_return": -0.058162,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "best_return": 0.113926,
        "worst_return": -0.106281,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "worst_return": -0.050022,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "sufficient": false
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        "end": "2024-05-10",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 45.512421,
        "volume": 12000,
        "typical_volume": 18619.6,
        "trend": 42.177342,
        "fair_value": 33.22222,
        "relative_strength": 1.165729,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.790648,
        "energy": 88.108481,
        "activity_lines": [
          45.095317,
          44.59373,
          43.78675,
          43.089703
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "volume": 12300,
        "typical_volume": 18514.9,
        "trend": 42.363719,
        "fair_value": 33.33773,
        "relative_strength": 2.465503,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.286833,
        "energy": 90.643643,
        "activity_lines": [
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          44.079403,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 45.988274,
        "volume": 7900,
        "typical_volume": 18330.35,
        "trend": 42.567998,
        "fair_value": 33.452953,
        "relative_strength": 1.688075,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 75.110591,
        "energy": 88.658248,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 46.42588,
        "volume": 7800,
        "typical_volume": 18049.0,
        "trend": 42.786528,
        "fair_value": 33.571914,
        "relative_strength": 3.351636,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.183825,
        "energy": 89.944655,
        "activity_lines": [
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          44.622057,
          43.824724
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 48.106678,
        "volume": 15400,
        "typical_volume": 17615.0,
        "trend": 43.047275,
        "fair_value": 33.704743,
        "relative_strength": 5.03489,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 93.863203,
        "energy": 93.406724,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.792641,
          46.052286,
          45.041303,
          44.167959
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 47.241764,
        "volume": 19000,
        "typical_volume": 16880.0,
        "trend": 43.283252,
        "fair_value": 33.830622,
        "relative_strength": 2.25193,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.741756,
        "energy": 83.083281,
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          44.438571
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 48.089466,
        "volume": 2900,
        "typical_volume": 15705.0,
        "trend": 43.538701,
        "fair_value": 33.962813,
        "relative_strength": 5.075493,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.446617,
        "energy": 85.776743,
        "activity_lines": [
          47.504964,
          46.815311,
          45.693473,
          44.74865
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 48.977058,
        "volume": 500,
        "typical_volume": 14620.0,
        "trend": 43.807179,
        "fair_value": 34.101104,
        "relative_strength": 5.316632,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.570202,
        "energy": 88.670466,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 49.375973,
        "volume": 1500,
        "typical_volume": 13965.0,
        "trend": 44.101118,
        "fair_value": 34.247812,
        "relative_strength": 5.968734,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.491856,
        "energy": 93.823042,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 49.230118,
        "volume": 1800,
        "typical_volume": 12945.0,
        "trend": 44.369931,
        "fair_value": 34.38706,
        "relative_strength": 5.518092,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.572264,
        "energy": 91.820209,
        "activity_lines": [
          48.933757,
          48.190325,
          46.85809,
          45.789692
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 49.313892,
        "volume": 500,
        "typical_volume": 12150.0,
        "trend": 44.637807,
        "fair_value": 34.52908,
        "relative_strength": 4.810916,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.160887,
        "energy": 90.247457,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.177429,
          48.51948,
          47.188547,
          46.108657
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 49.782593,
        "volume": 5400,
        "typical_volume": 11485.0,
        "trend": 44.914527,
        "fair_value": 34.672104,
        "relative_strength": 5.538034,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.646829,
        "energy": 92.005202,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.439193,
          48.864737,
          47.536813,
          46.440579
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 50.680119,
        "volume": 6000,
        "typical_volume": 11070.0,
        "trend": 45.221504,
        "fair_value": 34.817587,
        "relative_strength": 7.414487,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 89.729947,
        "energy": 84.346904,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.887257,
          49.306,
          47.943521,
          46.812552
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 50.380943,
        "volume": 8600,
        "typical_volume": 10095.0,
        "trend": 45.509016,
        "fair_value": 34.963029,
        "relative_strength": 6.333709,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.376729,
        "energy": 71.302923,
        "activity_lines": [
          50.122058,
          49.607562,
          48.292889,
          47.145419
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 50.419998,
        "volume": 5500,
        "typical_volume": 9725.0,
        "trend": 45.833149,
        "fair_value": 35.111083,
        "relative_strength": 6.725453,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.278574,
        "energy": 69.860661,
        "activity_lines": [
          50.30288,
          49.844314,
          48.615392,
          47.462257
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 49.5,
        "volume": 10700,
        "typical_volume": 9110.0,
        "trend": 46.130557,
        "fair_value": 35.252177,
        "relative_strength": 1.386603,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.477463,
        "energy": 66.407187,
        "activity_lines": [
          50.09771,
          49.871734,
          48.819551,
          47.698828
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}