{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7164643-bf8c-416c-98d0-b310f849ae92", "symbol": "HRZN", "name": "Horizon Technology Finance", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.925, "architecture_energy": 31.005, "architecture_maturity": 22.001, "architecture_confidence": 45.508, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.7, "rotation_up": 52.67, "upward_expansion": 49.78, "deceleration": 43.2, "rotation_down": 25.27, "downward_expansion": 10.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.486175, 4.44954, 4.237747, 4.203396 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.64, "trend_reference": 4.36901, "distance_from_trend": 0.062026, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.25718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.258452, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.111379, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.17385, "excess_performance": -0.361303, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062026, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074762, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.258452, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12264, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.151114, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.199749, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17385, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.485925, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3408761, "relative_activity": 0.886519, "balance": 1.485925, "dry_up": 0.789941, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074723, "annualized_volatility": 0.638491, "from_high_reference": -0.190491, "from_low_reference": 0.375641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.36901, "fair_value_reference": 6.25718, "structural_low": 3.372972, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.05553, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": 0.002984, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.011655, "worst_return": -0.101806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.081411, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.096325, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.045562, "worst_return": -0.389824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.186548, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.234871, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.038462, "worst_return": -0.236068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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4.554673, 4.345356, 4.111045, 4.206262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.31, "volume": 2468754, "typical_volume": 4086065.25, "trend": 4.440625, "fair_value": 6.293274, "relative_strength": -18.251008, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.044718, "energy": 46.926905, "activity_lines": [ 4.499662, 4.370313, 4.14591, 4.195724 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.32, "volume": 2634450, "typical_volume": 3853986.9, "trend": 4.400458, "fair_value": 6.274164, "relative_strength": -17.607242, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.806171, "energy": 25.540992, "activity_lines": [ 4.438438, 4.387285, 4.178456, 4.187942 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.64, "volume": 3408761, "typical_volume": 3845108.9, "trend": 4.36901, "fair_value": 6.25718, "relative_strength": -15.111379, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.924892, "energy": 31.005171, "activity_lines": [ 4.486175, 4.44954, 4.237747, 4.203396 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }