{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c71b6a23-1491-4010-830f-0f0b0761d9a0", "symbol": "CLML", "name": "CI Global Climate Leaders Fund (ETF C$ Series)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 56.663, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.103, "architecture_energy": 23.257, "architecture_maturity": 62.778, "architecture_confidence": 94.494, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.64, "rotation_up": 16.73, "upward_expansion": 45.1, "deceleration": 85.06, "rotation_down": 46.85, "downward_expansion": 36.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.835334, 53.090545, 53.468381, 52.315849 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 51.52, "trend_reference": 50.399666, "distance_from_trend": 0.022229, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.518942, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.492514, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.878974, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.1518, "excess_performance": 0.031378, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022229, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085794, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.492514, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18469, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00879, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12995, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1518, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.960625, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16000, "relative_activity": 0.417973, "balance": 0.960625, "dry_up": 0.883621, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040552, "annualized_volatility": 0.203681, "from_high_reference": -0.110958, "from_low_reference": 0.381974 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.399666, "fair_value_reference": 34.518942, "structural_low": 44.400002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.021174, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.006776, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.116138, "worst_return": -0.064549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.091696, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.02877, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.168057, "worst_return": -0.159412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.228039, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.080213, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.263742, "worst_return": 0.191473, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.38606, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.20614, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.455875, "worst_return": 0.316245, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.05205, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048235, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147633, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091465, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.151, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070205, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010209, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030435, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002848, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.429348, "energy": 63.196759, "activity_lines": [ 55.879999, 55.253272, 53.38438, 51.43301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 53.93, "volume": 39100, "typical_volume": 34735.0, "trend": 49.123, "fair_value": 33.701891, "relative_strength": 7.085061, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.622671, "energy": 55.311879, "activity_lines": [ 55.329333, 55.112363, 53.620095, 51.769225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.700001, "volume": 80000, "typical_volume": 37795.0, "trend": 49.451667, "fair_value": 33.905737, "relative_strength": 2.70389, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.800683, "energy": 27.751077, "activity_lines": [ 54.04, 54.558727, 53.613476, 51.935484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.200001, "volume": 13600, "typical_volume": 37865.0, "trend": 49.789, "fair_value": 34.111891, "relative_strength": 3.347801, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.998392, "energy": 25.271679, "activity_lines": [ 53.132, 54.120727, 53.637762, 52.112795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.5, "volume": 25700, "typical_volume": 38520.0, "trend": 50.083666, "fair_value": 34.315096, "relative_strength": 2.340966, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.565682, "energy": 23.43006, "activity_lines": [ 52.352, 53.580727, 53.564286, 52.223183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.52, "volume": 16000, "typical_volume": 38280.0, "trend": 50.399666, "fair_value": 34.518942, "relative_strength": -0.878974, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.103385, "energy": 23.25655, "activity_lines": [ 51.835334, 53.090545, 53.468381, 52.315849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }