{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7242222-8b4e-4ef0-8b7f-b7c5402c20fa", "symbol": "EAV", "name": "Emma Villas S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 59.553, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.808, "architecture_energy": 3.784, "architecture_maturity": 16.779, "architecture_confidence": 58.783, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.89, "rotation_up": 24.67, "upward_expansion": 32.0, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 29.21, "downward_expansion": 47.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.284, 1.275091, 1.247238, 1.260452 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.36, "trend_reference": 1.310667, "distance_from_trend": 0.03764, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.128153, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.360948, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.348813, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.105263, "excess_performance": -0.276155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03764, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077212, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.360948, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.141828, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.233488, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.185908, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105263, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.224599, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4000, "relative_activity": 0.12966, "balance": 1.224599, "dry_up": 0.76175, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080317, "annualized_volatility": 0.589765, "from_high_reference": -0.387387, "from_low_reference": 0.259259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.310667, "fair_value_reference": 2.128153, "structural_low": 1.08, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008333, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006063, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.100775, "worst_return": -0.098361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.054828, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.144364, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.037433, "worst_return": -0.072222, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.187166, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.332338, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.187166, "worst_return": -0.187166, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.31016, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.643233, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.31016, "worst_return": -0.31016, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.179487, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.080214, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082051, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069892, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095477, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144444, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054264, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 3.15, "volume": 104000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 1.13, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 28225.0, "trend": 1.324333, "fair_value": 2.138128, "relative_strength": -35.360706, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.721333, "energy": 54.586868, "activity_lines": [ 1.166667, 1.221091, 1.217143, 1.251763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.42, "volume": 67500, "typical_volume": 31325.0, "trend": 1.321, "fair_value": 2.133309, "relative_strength": -18.438523, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.444066, "energy": 14.930167, "activity_lines": [ 1.238667, 1.256182, 1.235286, 1.257935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.36, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 30850.0, "trend": 1.310667, "fair_value": 2.128153, "relative_strength": -23.348813, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.807879, "energy": 3.783883, "activity_lines": [ 1.284, 1.275091, 1.247238, 1.260452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }