{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c726067a-6c73-4b9c-bdbb-32cd883d13a0", "symbol": "ATRLJ-B", "name": "Atrium Ljungberg AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.222, "architecture_energy": 45.505, "architecture_maturity": 62.668, "architecture_confidence": 83.807, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.23, "rotation_up": 25.74, "upward_expansion": 6.95, "deceleration": 56.58, "rotation_down": 44.45, "downward_expansion": 75.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.5, 26.544545, 27.374309, 28.248709 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.65, "trend_reference": 29.580376, "distance_from_trend": -0.099065, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.079115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.240289, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.796324, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.189455, "excess_performance": -0.250949, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099065, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062813, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.240289, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062454, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227963, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066439, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.189455, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.406846, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1389058, "relative_activity": 0.809452, "balance": 1.406846, "dry_up": 0.837926, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051523, "annualized_volatility": 0.28322, "from_high_reference": -0.246408, "from_low_reference": 0.038986 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.580376, "fair_value_reference": 35.079115, "structural_low": 25.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.000646, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.01845, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.215331, "worst_return": -0.169766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.034872, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.036309, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.358188, "worst_return": -0.143753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.073185, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.08774, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.382188, "worst_return": -0.221649, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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27.409091, 28.469316, 29.424182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.1, "volume": 2920721, "typical_volume": 1649018.9, "trend": 30.39357, "fair_value": 35.368838, "relative_strength": -20.53096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.839928, "energy": 65.914397, "activity_lines": [ 26.746667, 27.234545, 28.240415, 29.200904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.549999, "volume": 1703917, "typical_volume": 1658634.45, "trend": 30.21547, "fair_value": 35.296911, "relative_strength": -20.814516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.416048, "energy": 52.162618, "activity_lines": [ 26.723333, 27.006363, 27.986931, 28.952931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.950001, "volume": 1306745, "typical_volume": 1654636.85, "trend": 30.020463, "fair_value": 35.21924, "relative_strength": -23.282435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.782912, "energy": 52.103089, "activity_lines": [ 26.503333, 26.720909, 27.713765, 28.67774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.549999, "volume": 1351965, "typical_volume": 1682001.6, "trend": 29.829508, "fair_value": 35.147314, "relative_strength": -22.105432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.643508, "energy": 46.307431, "activity_lines": [ 26.496666, 26.597273, 27.527809, 28.453839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.65, "volume": 1389058, "typical_volume": 1716047.05, "trend": 29.580376, "fair_value": 35.079115, "relative_strength": -22.796324, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.222006, "energy": 45.505282, "activity_lines": [ 26.5, 26.544545, 27.374309, 28.248709 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }