{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c72b6f77-875d-4571-96df-f22029e6189c", "symbol": "BKLN", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II SR LN ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.931, "architecture_energy": 76.54, "architecture_maturity": 2.781, "architecture_confidence": 54.214, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.95, "rotation_up": 79.73, "upward_expansion": 91.17, "deceleration": 42.16, "rotation_down": 11.14, "downward_expansion": 17.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.420256, 20.362969, 20.353128, 20.323886 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.5, "trend_reference": 20.301699, "distance_from_trend": 0.009768, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.058257, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.075649, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.837758, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.011879, "excess_performance": -0.113746, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009768, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -8e-05, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.075649, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014724, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098378, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002552, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011879, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.60809, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38044824, "relative_activity": 0.797075, "balance": 0.60809, "dry_up": 0.646939, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004142, "annualized_volatility": 0.035738, "from_high_reference": -0.001733, "from_low_reference": 0.035454 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.301699, "fair_value_reference": 19.058257, "structural_low": 19.798086, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": 0.004657, "positive_rate": 0.695652, "directional_follow_through": 0.695652, "median_excess_return": -0.014553, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.027809, "worst_return": -0.020749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.014318, "positive_rate": 0.933333, "directional_follow_through": 0.933333, "median_excess_return": -0.024692, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.04222, "worst_return": -0.003436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.036991, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.058273, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.062325, "worst_return": -0.024732, "sufficient": 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48.405823, "activity_lines": [ 20.368558, 20.330668, 20.336312, 20.311148 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.5, "volume": 38044824, "typical_volume": 47730520.05, "trend": 20.301699, "fair_value": 19.058257, "relative_strength": -9.837758, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.93109, "energy": 76.540155, "activity_lines": [ 20.420256, 20.362969, 20.353128, 20.323886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }