{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c735d796-cb4b-47d5-b9ba-4ca71e5d39ef", "symbol": "2024", "name": "Chih Lien Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.074, "architecture_energy": 51.696, "architecture_maturity": 52.179, "architecture_confidence": 94.546, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.06, "rotation_up": 17.89, "upward_expansion": 8.62, "deceleration": 44.01, "rotation_down": 61.9, "downward_expansion": 84.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.493333, 13.629091, 13.793571, 14.055376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.4, "trend_reference": 14.521667, "distance_from_trend": -0.077241, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.408974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.272094, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.299942, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.182927, "excess_performance": -0.528659, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077241, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053963, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.272094, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027997, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.382999, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054581, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.182927, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.300327, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38005, "relative_activity": 0.492115, "balance": 0.300327, "dry_up": 0.814184, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043054, "annualized_volatility": 0.243567, "from_high_reference": -0.307494, "from_low_reference": 0.022901 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.521667, "fair_value_reference": 18.408974, "structural_low": 13.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.011527, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.016274, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.419618, "worst_return": -0.123746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.017523, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.029035, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.35443, "worst_return": -0.137195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.001024, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009061, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.195115, "worst_return": -0.157738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 13.84, 13.912727, 14.130238, 14.524731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.0, "volume": 10000, "typical_volume": 78095.0, "trend": 14.981667, "fair_value": 18.524359, "relative_strength": -37.145876, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.018274, "energy": 37.760189, "activity_lines": [ 13.863333, 13.925455, 14.084762, 14.457957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.8, "volume": 62210, "typical_volume": 75658.1, "trend": 14.91, "fair_value": 18.503205, "relative_strength": -38.4103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.297894, "energy": 36.215206, "activity_lines": [ 13.833333, 13.907273, 14.032857, 14.38172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.7, "volume": 85201, "typical_volume": 76111.8, "trend": 14.85, "fair_value": 18.48141, "relative_strength": -37.081129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.355741, "energy": 36.904747, "activity_lines": [ 13.79, 13.858182, 13.980714, 14.303656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.6, "volume": 42049, "typical_volume": 74570.75, "trend": 14.72, "fair_value": 18.457692, "relative_strength": -38.087036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.802061, "energy": 35.657176, "activity_lines": [ 13.72, 13.799091, 13.924048, 14.223011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 13.35, "volume": 86256, "typical_volume": 76429.85, "trend": 14.628333, "fair_value": 18.432051, "relative_strength": -40.33751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.12083, "energy": 42.728079, "activity_lines": [ 13.59, 13.703636, 13.852619, 14.134624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 13.4, "volume": 38005, "typical_volume": 77227.9, "trend": 14.521667, "fair_value": 18.408974, "relative_strength": -38.299942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.073535, "energy": 51.695646, "activity_lines": [ 13.493333, 13.629091, 13.793571, 14.055376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }