{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c73b6cbf-79ec-4284-bbc2-04ed2000d650", "symbol": "ONEX", "name": "Onex Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.815, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.67, "architecture_energy": 16.566, "architecture_maturity": 24.818, "architecture_confidence": 36.88, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.43, "rotation_up": 38.36, "upward_expansion": 55.25, "deceleration": 55.04, "rotation_down": 27.08, "downward_expansion": 25.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 108.765998, 108.437304, 109.052309, 108.283161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 111.959999, "trend_reference": 108.150019, "distance_from_trend": 0.035229, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 102.299266, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.094436, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.012944, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.050693, "excess_performance": -0.069728, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035229, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00931, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.094436, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071496, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110129, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028316, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050693, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.462199, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 394200, "relative_activity": 0.939287, "balance": 0.462199, "dry_up": 1.105485, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050287, "annualized_volatility": 0.257751, "from_high_reference": -0.145529, "from_low_reference": 0.177792 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.150019, "fair_value_reference": 102.299266, "structural_low": 95.059224, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.014441, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.040464, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.090115, "worst_return": -0.084927, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.040973, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.091721, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.154456, "worst_return": -0.183587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.071945, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.154501, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.151575, "worst_return": -0.255832, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 101.558973, "relative_strength": -13.504507, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.50422, "energy": 9.356688, "activity_lines": [ 108.245483, 108.532728, 108.826918, 108.352367 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 107.169998, "volume": 478600, "typical_volume": 445140.0, "trend": 108.627598, "fair_value": 101.742189, "relative_strength": -13.600548, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.212288, "energy": 14.027066, "activity_lines": [ 107.798028, 108.183099, 108.822548, 108.250795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 106.639999, "volume": 477400, "typical_volume": 437585.0, "trend": 108.511113, "fair_value": 101.9177, "relative_strength": -13.764937, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.22298, "energy": 14.852569, "activity_lines": [ 107.397652, 107.891289, 108.739908, 108.122563 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 107.339996, "volume": 505600, "typical_volume": 432955.0, "trend": 108.299612, "fair_value": 102.10302, "relative_strength": -12.345572, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.165795, "energy": 19.640037, "activity_lines": [ 107.408428, 107.765114, 108.703422, 108.047007 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 111.959999, "volume": 394200, "typical_volume": 419680.0, "trend": 108.150019, "fair_value": 102.299266, "relative_strength": -11.012944, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.670303, "energy": 16.566126, "activity_lines": [ 108.765998, 108.437304, 109.052309, 108.283161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }