{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c741750f-3470-408b-a815-d190f4e82d0d", "symbol": "300192", "name": "Suzhou Kingswood Education Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.623, "architecture_energy": 24.463, "architecture_maturity": 42.575, "architecture_confidence": 65.182, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.56, "rotation_up": 24.17, "upward_expansion": 11.45, "deceleration": 62.2, "rotation_down": 40.57, "downward_expansion": 68.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.854667, 11.780104, 12.219313, 12.668123 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.08, "trend_reference": 13.399714, "distance_from_trend": -0.02386, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.337688, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.265273, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.727546, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.101913, "excess_performance": -0.109312, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02386, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055548, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.265273, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155251, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067275, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042987, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101913, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.788122, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 93489822, "relative_activity": 1.481369, "balance": 0.788122, "dry_up": 1.165399, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118888, "annualized_volatility": 0.499557, "from_high_reference": -0.337353, "from_low_reference": 0.314573 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.399714, "fair_value_reference": 10.337688, "structural_low": 9.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.027076, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.010719, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.233664, "worst_return": -0.144362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.029713, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.027687, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.386139, "worst_return": -0.191367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.040583, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.027734, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.403961, "worst_return": -0.132374, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.654196, "energy": 45.171415, "activity_lines": [ 11.972381, 12.128441, 12.743605, 13.218771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.28, "volume": 59323854, "typical_volume": 59586485.8, "trend": 13.713762, "fair_value": 10.260378, "relative_strength": -24.163388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.33653, "energy": 53.564249, "activity_lines": [ 11.427333, 11.727974, 12.467258, 12.989729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.16, "volume": 45826517, "typical_volume": 58364965.05, "trend": 13.554333, "fair_value": 10.275637, "relative_strength": -25.040722, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.298166, "energy": 57.274771, "activity_lines": [ 10.925048, 11.379688, 12.202877, 12.760454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.51, "volume": 95555090, "typical_volume": 60520407.8, "trend": 13.466809, "fair_value": 10.306479, "relative_strength": -6.204265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.728832, "energy": 44.056506, "activity_lines": [ 11.319714, 11.522909, 12.18117, 12.693078 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.08, "volume": 93489822, "typical_volume": 63110424.9, "trend": 13.399714, "fair_value": 10.337688, "relative_strength": -6.727546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.622537, "energy": 24.462788, "activity_lines": [ 11.854667, 11.780104, 12.219313, 12.668123 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }