{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7439ded-fe28-47c9-91b1-ded1b119ad28", "symbol": "ENR", "name": "Siemens Energy AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 71.524, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.857, "architecture_energy": 39.19, "architecture_maturity": 6.493, "architecture_confidence": 55.542, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.32, "rotation_up": 22.22, "upward_expansion": 18.1, "deceleration": 43.28, "rotation_down": 56.68, "downward_expansion": 55.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 150.410668, 153.615274, 159.342335, 159.558251 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 153.0, "trend_reference": 157.921551, "distance_from_trend": -0.031165, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 70.160231, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.180723, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.632168, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.021252, "excess_performance": -0.152995, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031165, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092296, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.180723, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.866418, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066322, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.362305, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021252, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.424822, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4927, "relative_activity": 4.697078, "balance": 1.424822, "dry_up": 2.614281, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093826, "annualized_volatility": 0.447105, "from_high_reference": -0.192271, "from_low_reference": 0.826525 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 157.921551, "fair_value_reference": 70.160231, "structural_low": 134.679993, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.056459, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067192, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.038939, "worst_return": -0.151858, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.16952, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.203093, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.16952, "worst_return": -0.16952, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.239342, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.354305, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.239342, "worst_return": -0.239342, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037361, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.075859, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.287094, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.256382, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.221238, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.341332, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.191831, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138522, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046926, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034063, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.069704, "volume": 2814, "typical_volume": 2622.7, "trend": 19.149315, "fair_value": 20.992918, "relative_strength": -22.875598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 150.699997, "volume": 4876, "typical_volume": 899.5, "trend": 156.207691, "fair_value": 68.416689, "relative_strength": -4.94569, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.011537, "energy": 31.031166, "activity_lines": [ 152.824, 156.28691, 161.437096, 160.349958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 147.960007, "volume": 87, "typical_volume": 847.9, "trend": 157.023771, "fair_value": 69.266019, "relative_strength": -6.787418, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.941029, "energy": 43.090456, "activity_lines": [ 150.561335, 154.242547, 160.161049, 159.817849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 153.0, "volume": 4927, "typical_volume": 1048.95, "trend": 157.921551, "fair_value": 70.160231, "relative_strength": -6.632168, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.856663, "energy": 39.189575, "activity_lines": [ 150.410668, 153.615274, 159.342335, 159.558251 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }