{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c74774d8-3b78-432c-bd93-871d4123c47e", "symbol": "002166", "name": "Guilin Layn Natural Ingredients Corp.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.602, "architecture_energy": 55.755, "architecture_maturity": 75.331, "architecture_confidence": 82.695, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.04, "rotation_up": 27.42, "upward_expansion": 14.87, "deceleration": 60.94, "rotation_down": 48.9, "downward_expansion": 76.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.6, 6.638545, 7.255749, 7.685194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.77, "trend_reference": 8.170861, "distance_from_trend": -0.171446, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.585061, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107456, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.703645, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.256798, "excess_performance": -0.264198, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.171446, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058458, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107456, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.295986, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197036, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082667, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.256798, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.76426, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56450383, "relative_activity": 1.120256, "balance": 0.76426, "dry_up": 1.746134, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084309, "annualized_volatility": 0.326464, "from_high_reference": -0.349345, "from_low_reference": 0.106209 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.170861, "fair_value_reference": 7.585061, "structural_low": 6.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.034436, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.018801, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.147399, "worst_return": -0.152406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.016595, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.013134, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.384013, "worst_return": -0.120784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.000934, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019058, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.121378, "worst_return": -0.129114, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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6.975455, 7.67134, 8.02329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.25, "volume": 90566141, "typical_volume": 49859663.15, "trend": 8.304105, "fair_value": 7.596996, "relative_strength": -24.290225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.631463, "energy": 76.686321, "activity_lines": [ 6.443333, 6.764364, 7.491109, 7.885703 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.65, "volume": 66827992, "typical_volume": 49895649.8, "trend": 8.223779, "fair_value": 7.588936, "relative_strength": -17.644588, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.945429, "energy": 63.112561, "activity_lines": [ 6.512, 6.672, 7.361412, 7.778986 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.77, "volume": 56450383, "typical_volume": 50390629.75, "trend": 8.170861, "fair_value": 7.585061, "relative_strength": -19.703645, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.601706, "energy": 55.755195, "activity_lines": [ 6.6, 6.638545, 7.255749, 7.685194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }