{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7481a1b-b98f-463c-9dc0-5148c96fd869", "symbol": "605365", "name": "Leedarson IoT Technology Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.151, "architecture_energy": 81.313, "architecture_maturity": 46.528, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.01, "rotation_up": 25.15, "upward_expansion": 20.81, "deceleration": 37.67, "rotation_down": 57.86, "downward_expansion": 94.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.190667, 13.635319, 16.350829, 17.793814 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.79, "trend_reference": 19.502231, "distance_from_trend": -0.292901, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.632849, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.170918, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.391122, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.314272, "excess_performance": -0.271068, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.292901, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10751, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.170918, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.901856, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.263911, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.67051, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.314272, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.14745, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17747049, "relative_activity": 0.560567, "balance": 0.14745, "dry_up": 0.633826, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144342, "annualized_volatility": 0.690403, "from_high_reference": -0.582261, "from_low_reference": 0.190846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.502231, "fair_value_reference": 16.632849, "structural_low": 11.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.008382, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.011874, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.15316, "worst_return": -0.127525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.095936, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.040555, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.308003, "worst_return": -0.033432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.219998, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.016553, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.327828, "worst_return": 0.059297, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"energy": 79.334312, "activity_lines": [ 14.88217, 16.677386, 19.416328, 20.231588 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.82, "volume": 19419638, "typical_volume": 32979810.45, "trend": 21.095231, "fair_value": 16.666699, "relative_strength": -28.246928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.637366, "energy": 75.386639, "activity_lines": [ 14.400667, 15.698859, 18.800247, 19.749616 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.57, "volume": 21478685, "typical_volume": 33445058.05, "trend": 20.849231, "fair_value": 16.655926, "relative_strength": -30.462345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.433292, "energy": 81.223814, "activity_lines": [ 13.696, 14.770416, 18.093643, 19.199601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.41, "volume": 23533957, "typical_volume": 32622228.45, "trend": 20.395898, "fair_value": 16.64364, "relative_strength": -31.988519, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.504173, "energy": 87.692371, "activity_lines": [ 13.156, 14.104533, 17.405181, 18.655134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.18, "volume": 17505768, "typical_volume": 32029525.0, "trend": 19.924565, "fair_value": 16.634643, "relative_strength": -27.86456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.022738, "energy": 83.764938, "activity_lines": [ 13.044, 13.767916, 16.83191, 18.189593 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.79, "volume": 17747049, "typical_volume": 31659106.1, "trend": 19.502231, "fair_value": 16.632849, "relative_strength": -26.391122, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.150941, "energy": 81.312948, "activity_lines": [ 13.190667, 13.635319, 16.350829, 17.793814 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }