{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c74a0ec7-6865-47a6-95b3-f3919d8c77b2", "symbol": "MJMT", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI Europe Momentum Factor UCITS ETF-C", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.611, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.141, "architecture_energy": 39.826, "architecture_maturity": 54.31, "architecture_confidence": 58.501, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.94, "rotation_up": 46.52, "upward_expansion": 74.0, "deceleration": 65.63, "rotation_down": 26.55, "downward_expansion": 9.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 151.029329, 150.926905, 149.651807, 147.95402 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 152.179993, "trend_reference": 146.442666, "distance_from_trend": 0.039178, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 117.230064, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.298131, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.131461, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.044618, "excess_performance": -0.020021, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039178, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036503, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.298131, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003079, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001315, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068548, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.044618, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.653417, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7644, "relative_activity": 1.247501, "balance": 0.653417, "dry_up": 0.744886, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021321, "annualized_volatility": 0.175133, "from_high_reference": -0.009116, "from_low_reference": 0.204718 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 146.442666, "fair_value_reference": 117.230064, "structural_low": 129.339996, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.012306, "positive_rate": 0.609756, "directional_follow_through": 0.609756, "median_excess_return": 0.007004, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.068636, "worst_return": -0.11007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.024697, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.025826, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.118749, "worst_return": -0.067694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.084465, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.04452, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.159552, "worst_return": -0.145952, 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"direction": 60.999148, "energy": 64.110465, "activity_lines": [ 151.075998, 150.207635, 147.864285, 146.615053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 148.979996, "volume": 4895, "typical_volume": 7386.6, "trend": 145.375333, "fair_value": 115.982628, "relative_strength": 4.524207, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.784275, "energy": 42.454653, "activity_lines": [ 150.382664, 150.167271, 148.180475, 146.872343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 151.259995, "volume": 3298, "typical_volume": 6785.4, "trend": 145.827333, "fair_value": 116.388974, "relative_strength": 4.706589, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.024504, "energy": 43.572659, "activity_lines": [ 150.59733, 150.480724, 148.713141, 147.251999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 150.699997, "volume": 2420, "typical_volume": 6266.9, "trend": 146.171332, "fair_value": 116.806154, "relative_strength": 1.979689, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.071133, "energy": 33.923507, "activity_lines": [ 150.591996, 150.580361, 149.141713, 147.566364 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 152.179993, "volume": 7644, "typical_volume": 6127.45, "trend": 146.442666, "fair_value": 117.230064, "relative_strength": 0.131461, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.140924, "energy": 39.825934, "activity_lines": [ 151.029329, 150.926905, 149.651807, 147.95402 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }