{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c74c14e3-5296-4434-9ae8-63d8dae4432e", "symbol": "MAT", "name": "Mattel Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.323, "architecture_energy": 19.944, "architecture_maturity": 99.825, "architecture_confidence": 81.061, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.76, "rotation_up": 37.88, "upward_expansion": 22.3, "deceleration": 41.31, "rotation_down": 24.17, "downward_expansion": 56.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.617333, 14.302364, 14.429286, 14.777118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.79, "trend_reference": 15.739333, "distance_from_trend": -0.060316, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.319006, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.192642, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.082152, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.311773, "excess_performance": -0.499227, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060316, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113227, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.192642, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013381, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.250822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050898, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.311773, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.488994, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25849071, "relative_activity": 1.160905, "balance": 0.488994, "dry_up": 1.121818, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066377, "annualized_volatility": 0.455581, "from_high_reference": -0.342082, "from_low_reference": 0.162032 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.739333, "fair_value_reference": 18.319006, "structural_low": 12.7277, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.009977, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.037999, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.171884, "worst_return": -0.081772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.040605, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.046608, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.327793, "worst_return": -0.058078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.12076, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.076348, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.196632, "worst_return": -0.138771, "sufficient": true 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"2026-07-17", "close": 14.3, "volume": 32913122, "typical_volume": 22288799.6, "trend": 16.324667, "fair_value": 18.437981, "relative_strength": -26.136631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.00275, "energy": 50.679969, "activity_lines": [ 13.789333, 14.027455, 14.384667, 15.04772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.34, "volume": 23986372, "typical_volume": 22178486.45, "trend": 16.127333, "fair_value": 18.397019, "relative_strength": -24.208102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.170562, "energy": 43.662446, "activity_lines": [ 13.97, 14.036545, 14.354952, 14.919677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.09, "volume": 17166431, "typical_volume": 22161494.15, "trend": 15.962333, "fair_value": 18.36266, "relative_strength": -20.201673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.943046, "energy": 19.687195, "activity_lines": [ 14.380667, 14.196727, 14.404095, 14.852753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.79, "volume": 25849071, "typical_volume": 22266308.3, "trend": 15.739333, "fair_value": 18.319006, "relative_strength": -25.082152, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.323121, "energy": 19.944211, "activity_lines": [ 14.617333, 14.302364, 14.429286, 14.777118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }