{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c74d7f77-2178-43f6-a817-993b14c7e9cf", "symbol": "000070", "name": "Shenzhen SDG Information Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.572, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.599, "architecture_energy": 62.462, "architecture_maturity": 14.467, "architecture_confidence": 63.474, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.28, "rotation_up": 16.27, "upward_expansion": 21.58, "deceleration": 43.24, "rotation_down": 72.28, "downward_expansion": 63.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.864667, 15.682546, 17.190952, 17.329656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.65, "trend_reference": 16.855333, "distance_from_trend": -0.130839, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.224231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.588208, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.424715, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.231092, "excess_performance": 0.223693, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130839, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118271, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.588208, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.891775, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004247, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.492969, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.231092, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.629508, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 294484445, "relative_activity": 0.728864, "balance": 0.629508, "dry_up": 0.710666, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.210606, "annualized_volatility": 0.907347, "from_high_reference": -0.40832, "from_low_reference": 1.009602 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.855333, "fair_value_reference": 9.224231, "structural_low": 11.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.077049, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.075426, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.077049, "worst_return": 0.077049, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.139344, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.096133, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.139344, "worst_return": 0.139344, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.513115, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.483559, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.513115, "worst_return": 0.513115, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.440984, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.562447, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.440984, "worst_return": 0.440984, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.078471, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040307, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071553, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.120401, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069027, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0608, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138053, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.536923, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.526144, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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32.076421, "energy": 20.669849, "activity_lines": [ 19.159334, 19.171818, 19.025429, 18.172538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.5, "volume": 325494349, "typical_volume": 434919011.1, "trend": 16.703667, "fair_value": 9.130897, "relative_strength": -1.796725, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -13.216534, "energy": 14.406694, "activity_lines": [ 17.252, 18.122546, 18.540333, 17.966882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.0, "volume": 298296944, "typical_volume": 421584374.55, "trend": 16.745, "fair_value": 9.156795, "relative_strength": -6.322331, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.720388, "energy": 42.040078, "activity_lines": [ 15.418, 17.12, 18.028429, 17.727935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.68, "volume": 230250892, "typical_volume": 402939910.3, "trend": 16.758333, "fair_value": 9.181923, "relative_strength": -7.78371, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.715073, "energy": 60.144778, "activity_lines": [ 13.992667, 16.169455, 17.505381, 17.465677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.65, "volume": 294484445, "typical_volume": 404031849.1, "trend": 16.855333, "fair_value": 9.224231, "relative_strength": 0.424715, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.599155, "energy": 62.46239, "activity_lines": [ 13.864667, 15.682546, 17.190952, 17.329656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }