{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c75eb976-1160-40a6-8d24-ae92d6b09eee", "symbol": "NTRS", "name": "Northern Trust Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.637, "architecture_energy": 64.551, "architecture_maturity": 55.26, "architecture_confidence": 93.572, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.28, "rotation_up": 64.19, "upward_expansion": 86.92, "deceleration": 58.6, "rotation_down": 22.87, "downward_expansion": 11.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 183.382, 180.843455, 174.571259, 167.548728 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 185.5, "trend_reference": 159.320966, "distance_from_trend": 0.164316, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 107.483503, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.725846, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.282592, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.231984, "excess_performance": 0.04453, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.164316, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10359, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.725846, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1066, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.112826, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102669, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.231984, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.431627, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4808636, "relative_activity": 0.927818, "balance": 2.431627, "dry_up": 1.093298, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041372, "annualized_volatility": 0.188548, "from_high_reference": -0.031837, "from_low_reference": 0.556903 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 159.320966, "fair_value_reference": 107.483503, "structural_low": 132.149833, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.002848, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.018615, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.141152, "worst_return": -0.1692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.019427, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.017734, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.137376, "worst_return": -0.201634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.123185, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.040703, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.269669, "worst_return": -0.17096, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 5287022.65, "trend": 156.46665, "fair_value": 106.064625, "relative_strength": 15.221464, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.937046, "energy": 79.241314, "activity_lines": [ 181.256, 177.820013, 170.768747, 164.111427 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 182.19, "volume": 5041755, "typical_volume": 5285776.65, "trend": 157.94519, "fair_value": 106.762459, "relative_strength": 15.267179, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.095826, "energy": 71.738821, "activity_lines": [ 182.044667, 179.16904, 172.621693, 165.770998 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 185.5, "volume": 4808636, "typical_volume": 5182737.4, "trend": 159.320966, "fair_value": 107.483503, "relative_strength": 11.282592, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.637093, "energy": 64.551248, "activity_lines": [ 183.382, 180.843455, 174.571259, 167.548728 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }