{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c75ef5a3-a066-4737-89fa-78a0bcb0dbf6", "symbol": "DHI", "name": "DR Horton Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.107, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -7.498, "architecture_energy": 14.723, "architecture_maturity": 17.422, "architecture_confidence": 46.014, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.26, "rotation_up": 18.42, "upward_expansion": 16.01, "deceleration": 66.57, "rotation_down": 51.48, "downward_expansion": 38.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 147.585686, 150.851695, 150.131326, 149.335781 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 151.08, "trend_reference": 149.601686, "distance_from_trend": 0.009882, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 144.934603, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042401, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.175667, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.030231, "excess_performance": -0.155856, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009882, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042401, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003433, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121757, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00944, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030231, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.839616, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10591311, "relative_activity": 0.884777, "balance": 0.839616, "dry_up": 1.134784, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070232, "annualized_volatility": 0.342902, "from_high_reference": -0.173893, "from_low_reference": 0.150252 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 149.601686, "fair_value_reference": 144.934603, "structural_low": 131.345086, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.004874, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.0302, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.255517, "worst_return": -0.188886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.049098, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.037344, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.358458, "worst_return": -0.095989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.143229, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.014515, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.228061, "worst_return": 0.067898, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 18391108, "typical_volume": 12220452.55, "trend": 149.852057, "fair_value": 144.60143, "relative_strength": -11.770893, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.399674, "energy": 8.295212, "activity_lines": [ 150.871185, 152.669517, 150.251611, 149.718299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 142.620447, "volume": 13762989, "typical_volume": 12243355.7, "trend": 149.777408, "fair_value": 144.732492, "relative_strength": -14.55678, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.59781, "energy": 20.471622, "activity_lines": [ 147.029525, 150.981469, 149.794733, 149.251743 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 151.08, "volume": 10591311, "typical_volume": 11970604.65, "trend": 149.601686, "fair_value": 144.934603, "relative_strength": -12.175667, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.497578, "energy": 14.722915, "activity_lines": [ 147.585686, 150.851695, 150.131326, 149.335781 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }