{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7621d76-861f-42c2-9c90-8579a902b616", "symbol": "WMGT", "name": "WisdomTree Megatrends UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.4, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.678, "architecture_energy": 30.284, "architecture_maturity": 6.722, "architecture_confidence": 50.464, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.83, "rotation_up": 14.39, "upward_expansion": 16.28, "deceleration": 63.92, "rotation_down": 63.98, "downward_expansion": 43.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.555667, 36.352182, 37.104048, 36.636849 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 36.755001, "trend_reference": 35.997167, "distance_from_trend": 0.021053, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.074083, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.264184, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.255995, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.090815, "excess_performance": 0.026175, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021053, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050072, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.264184, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115124, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00256, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224069, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090815, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.769342, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11928, "relative_activity": 0.563584, "balance": 0.769342, "dry_up": 0.763411, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053745, "annualized_volatility": 0.230467, "from_high_reference": -0.097372, "from_low_reference": 0.345598 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.997167, "fair_value_reference": 29.074083, "structural_low": 31.615, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034755, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.063933, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118912, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071082, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.116687, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01636, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112261, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-12-08", "close": 25.6411, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-15", "close": 24.615, "volume": 7493, "typical_volume": null, "trend": 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"fair_value": 28.889644, "relative_strength": 4.640459, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.585699, "energy": 18.535494, "activity_lines": [ 37.771332, 38.301272, 37.588119, 36.746849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.895, "volume": 17133, "typical_volume": 20515.1, "trend": 35.719, "fair_value": 28.933479, "relative_strength": 1.311029, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.485607, "energy": 16.463454, "activity_lines": [ 36.708999, 37.624545, 37.426476, 36.70115 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.41, "volume": 13339, "typical_volume": 20941.15, "trend": 35.845, "fair_value": 28.98041, "relative_strength": 1.366834, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.624133, "energy": 23.078837, "activity_lines": [ 36.041666, 37.114272, 37.315, 36.681215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.32, "volume": 22229, "typical_volume": 21527.3, "trend": 35.917667, "fair_value": 29.018824, "relative_strength": -4.01732, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.498312, "energy": 39.798506, "activity_lines": [ 35.273666, 36.464636, 37.093833, 36.582828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.755001, "volume": 11928, "typical_volume": 21164.55, "trend": 35.997167, "fair_value": 29.074083, "relative_strength": -0.255995, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.67779, "energy": 30.283914, "activity_lines": [ 35.555667, 36.352182, 37.104048, 36.636849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }