{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c76f8a2c-8aba-46df-9077-5159ab88f510", "symbol": "RCR", "name": "Rincon Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.871, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.277, "architecture_energy": 42.186, "architecture_maturity": 21.985, "architecture_confidence": 80.449, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.5, "rotation_up": 14.63, "upward_expansion": 4.92, "deceleration": 55.29, "rotation_down": 60.9, "downward_expansion": 78.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.013933, 0.0144, 0.01589, 0.01643 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.015, "trend_reference": 0.016867, "distance_from_trend": -0.110672, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.028551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.47463, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.233131, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.0625, "excess_performance": -0.126206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110672, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009785, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.47463, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044319, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152331, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270768, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.604713, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5002390, "relative_activity": 1.659359, "balance": 1.604713, "dry_up": 1.093837, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.184615, "annualized_volatility": 0.66535, "from_high_reference": -0.4, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.016867, "fair_value_reference": 0.028551, "structural_low": 0.012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.02, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036483, "regime_survival": 0.884615, "best_return": 0.636364, "worst_return": -0.436364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.2, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.215388, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.538462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.272727, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.336172, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 2.625, "worst_return": -0.461538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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0.016491, 0.017219, 0.017277 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.013, "volume": 1927700, "typical_volume": 4046286.25, "trend": 0.017067, "fair_value": 0.029179, "relative_strength": -22.93763, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.725894, "energy": 80.941472, "activity_lines": [ 0.014133, 0.015673, 0.016781, 0.017009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.014, "volume": 3146587, "typical_volume": 3182605.05, "trend": 0.016967, "fair_value": 0.028917, "relative_strength": -16.569611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.865889, "energy": 75.397383, "activity_lines": [ 0.013867, 0.015127, 0.016452, 0.016811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.013, "volume": 3113472, "typical_volume": 2921048.7, "trend": 0.016933, "fair_value": 0.028712, "relative_strength": -24.16565, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.601687, "energy": 73.09673, "activity_lines": [ 0.013467, 0.014509, 0.016062, 0.016555 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.015, "volume": 5002390, "typical_volume": 3014651.2, "trend": 0.016867, "fair_value": 0.028551, "relative_strength": -15.233131, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.276909, "energy": 42.185824, "activity_lines": [ 0.013933, 0.0144, 0.01589, 0.01643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }