{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c771fac1-fe54-499f-9a76-f7a886d9fad3", "symbol": "CBNA", "name": "Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.756, "architecture_energy": 65.512, "architecture_maturity": 47.542, "architecture_confidence": 76.548, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.12, "rotation_up": 78.25, "upward_expansion": 88.47, "deceleration": 48.39, "rotation_down": 12.52, "downward_expansion": 10.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.526667, 43.076182, 40.625619, 39.200108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 46.66, "trend_reference": 37.499667, "distance_from_trend": 0.244278, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.207062, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.544672, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.927717, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.267935, "excess_performance": 0.14231, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.244278, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079179, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.544672, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.245198, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.189277, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138268, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.267935, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.524429, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 187275, "relative_activity": 3.257843, "balance": 2.524429, "dry_up": 2.481449, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071079, "annualized_volatility": 0.269946, "from_high_reference": -0.049114, "from_low_reference": 0.776847 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.499667, "fair_value_reference": 30.207062, "structural_low": 34.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.036177, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.033156, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.214088, "worst_return": -0.026882, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.254301, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.203311, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.254301, "worst_return": 0.254301, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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36.686667, "fair_value": 29.872474, "relative_strength": 14.200787, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.536094, "energy": 67.715017, "activity_lines": [ 42.128667, 40.889455, 39.08319, 38.008903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.54, "volume": 117339, "typical_volume": 49731.8, "trend": 37.049667, "fair_value": 30.035677, "relative_strength": 20.961113, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.235058, "energy": 61.36066, "activity_lines": [ 43.342667, 41.961818, 39.825714, 38.580086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.66, "volume": 187275, "typical_volume": 57484.35, "trend": 37.499667, "fair_value": 30.207062, "relative_strength": 18.927717, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.755732, "energy": 65.511718, "activity_lines": [ 44.526667, 43.076182, 40.625619, 39.200108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }