{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c77dd2b5-8f42-4aa7-b1b3-a6f3a7a00b46", "symbol": "VHT", "name": "Vanguard Health Care Index Fund ETF Shares", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.018, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.068, "architecture_energy": 65.543, "architecture_maturity": 13.039, "architecture_confidence": 75.073, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.98, "rotation_up": 74.75, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 57.84, "rotation_down": 12.34, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 5338.88138, 5276.336665, 5102.175526, 5034.275452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5290.080078, "trend_reference": 4991.150032, "distance_from_trend": 0.059892, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4854.335432, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.089764, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.789789, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.069597, "excess_performance": 0.124264, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059892, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00038, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.089764, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104182, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.037898, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.166813, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069597, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.429091, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8, "relative_activity": 0.057887, "balance": 2.429091, "dry_up": 0.663893, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024263, "annualized_volatility": 0.14467, "from_high_reference": -0.027559, "from_low_reference": 0.193377 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4991.150032, "fair_value_reference": 4854.335432, "structural_low": 4643.478516, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.00424, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.004897, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.093788, "worst_return": -0.103509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.045026, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.071891, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.123335, "worst_return": -0.149815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.085952, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.031388, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.11638, "worst_return": -0.158142, "sufficient": true }, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5411.580078, "volume": 88, "typical_volume": 152.35, "trend": 4992.6618, "fair_value": 4846.778253, "relative_strength": 6.244566, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.81011, "energy": 91.180322, "activity_lines": [ 5358.202702, 5250.908541, 5070.137621, 5015.087176 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5290.080078, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 138.2, "trend": 4991.150032, "fair_value": 4854.335432, "relative_strength": 3.789789, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.06774, "energy": 65.543484, "activity_lines": [ 5338.88138, 5276.336665, 5102.175526, 5034.275452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }