{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c780139f-1673-4353-9c85-4ed1a9327fd7", "symbol": "6130", "name": "Shangya Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 81.206, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 4.957, "architecture_energy": 7.519, "architecture_maturity": 26.092, "architecture_confidence": 64.182, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.81, "rotation_up": 29.39, "upward_expansion": 30.06, "deceleration": 49.22, "rotation_down": 21.46, "downward_expansion": 45.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.84, 25.328182, 24.580953, 25.756344 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.0, "trend_reference": 28.806667, "distance_from_trend": 0.006711, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.693521, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.084987, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -42.814202, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.29697, "excess_performance": -0.738342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006711, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170315, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.084987, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.220168, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.428142, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180654, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.29697, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.901526, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2969608, "relative_activity": 2.107871, "balance": 0.901526, "dry_up": 0.960317, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106233, "annualized_volatility": 0.493107, "from_high_reference": -0.399586, "from_low_reference": 0.400966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.806667, "fair_value_reference": 31.693521, "structural_low": 20.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.111988, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.068673, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.389595, "worst_return": -0.237576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.156182, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.078752, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.229872, "worst_return": -0.45697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.224894, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.287226, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.057631, "worst_return": -0.35141, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.668138, "energy": 34.368677, "activity_lines": [ 24.066667, 23.531818, 24.667381, 27.942043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.200001, "volume": 1893044, "typical_volume": 1038715.35, "trend": 32.21, "fair_value": 31.872999, "relative_strength": -52.480215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.224206, "energy": 26.64137, "activity_lines": [ 24.846667, 24.045455, 24.579286, 27.51871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.9, "volume": 4644063, "typical_volume": 1253794.8, "trend": 31.483333, "fair_value": 31.829735, "relative_strength": -51.125604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.062551, "energy": 23.695746, "activity_lines": [ 24.92, 24.29, 24.430714, 27.047097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.35, "volume": 1339031, "typical_volume": 1303193.45, "trend": 30.773333, "fair_value": 31.772517, "relative_strength": -52.381378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.470053, "energy": 18.404774, "activity_lines": [ 24.8, 24.412727, 24.293572, 26.586882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 840007, "typical_volume": 1284640.9, "trend": 30.053333, "fair_value": 31.734246, "relative_strength": -51.22244, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.452833, "energy": 16.979112, "activity_lines": [ 24.64, 24.472728, 24.206191, 26.162796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.1, "volume": 263002, "typical_volume": 1277389.0, "trend": 29.346667, "fair_value": 31.698495, "relative_strength": -51.753589, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.363838, "energy": 24.15835, "activity_lines": [ 24.423334, 24.474546, 24.14381, 25.77871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 29.0, "volume": 2969608, "typical_volume": 1408818.45, "trend": 28.806667, "fair_value": 31.693521, "relative_strength": -42.814202, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.956622, "energy": 7.518862, "activity_lines": [ 25.84, 25.328182, 24.580953, 25.756344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }