{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c787923b-472f-43e1-bf96-254fcf5aedd3", "symbol": "MINO", "name": "PIMCO ETF TRUST PIMCO MUNI INCOME OPPORTNS ACTIVE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 86.85, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.587, "architecture_energy": 30.118, "architecture_maturity": 36.421, "architecture_confidence": 65.897, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.15, "rotation_up": 16.91, "upward_expansion": 18.2, "deceleration": 65.84, "rotation_down": 59.37, "downward_expansion": 38.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.895815, 45.084861, 45.121139, 45.106981 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 45.01, "trend_reference": 45.087043, "distance_from_trend": -0.001709, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.766374, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052462, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.297233, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001281, "excess_performance": -0.126906, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001709, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004577, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.052462, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013418, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102972, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01372, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001281, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.069475, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 581509, "relative_activity": 1.08517, "balance": 1.069475, "dry_up": 1.000474, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00706, "annualized_volatility": 0.039744, "from_high_reference": -0.012939, "from_low_reference": 0.058574 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.087043, "fair_value_reference": 42.766374, "structural_low": 44.347702, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00802, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.051267, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.018626, "worst_return": -0.013247, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.020044, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.116197, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.024366, "worst_return": 0.014854, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.021153, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.145471, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.036326, "worst_return": 0.005981, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022253, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009555, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004554, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027225, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0177, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018626, 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"energy": 63.877394, "activity_lines": [ 45.426954, 45.331924, 45.206027, 45.155704 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.16869, "volume": 486614, "typical_volume": 519350.3, "trend": 45.076302, "fair_value": 42.667909, "relative_strength": -7.04081, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.415863, "energy": 34.597228, "activity_lines": [ 45.341351, 45.321856, 45.208792, 45.162974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.680218, "volume": 583188, "typical_volume": 522844.45, "trend": 45.080315, "fair_value": 42.698654, "relative_strength": -7.329945, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.70843, "energy": 11.690942, "activity_lines": [ 45.102408, 45.221583, 45.166878, 45.13742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.680218, "volume": 493181, "typical_volume": 533096.4, "trend": 45.081708, "fair_value": 42.731931, "relative_strength": -8.079714, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.458645, "energy": 33.950846, "activity_lines": [ 44.914818, 45.123019, 45.127529, 45.111608 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.01, "volume": 581509, "typical_volume": 535868.85, "trend": 45.087043, "fair_value": 42.766374, "relative_strength": -10.297233, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.587318, "energy": 30.117883, "activity_lines": [ 44.895815, 45.084861, 45.121139, 45.106981 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }