{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7899ef4-436a-487c-9fa5-5f33f7abf7f2", "symbol": "WETH", "name": "WisdomTree Physical Ethereum ETC", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.878, "architecture_energy": 26.209, "architecture_maturity": 83.161, "architecture_confidence": 69.357, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.52, "rotation_up": 32.98, "upward_expansion": 20.22, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 19.74, "downward_expansion": 54.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.158467, 15.630146, 16.16389, 16.691258 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 16.392, "trend_reference": 17.759833, "distance_from_trend": -0.077018, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.830154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.249112, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.446601, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.03235, "excess_performance": -0.085661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077018, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130327, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.249112, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10085, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234466, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100109, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03235, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.562854, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2580, "relative_activity": 0.209361, "balance": 0.562854, "dry_up": 0.12724, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067603, "annualized_volatility": 0.464399, "from_high_reference": -0.429049, "from_low_reference": 0.229339 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.759833, "fair_value_reference": 21.830154, "structural_low": 13.334, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.113899, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.020105, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.183281, "worst_return": -0.200035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.099615, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.146558, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099615, "worst_return": 0.099615, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.144261, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007143, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085805, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041755, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040955, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 22.77, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 22.77, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -64.874241, "energy": 61.77486, "activity_lines": [ 14.7946, 15.174727, 16.489162, 17.264899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.322001, "volume": 1231, "typical_volume": 14909.8, "trend": 18.542933, "fair_value": 21.957103, "relative_strength": -22.26915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.00017, "energy": 46.853563, "activity_lines": [ 15.362334, 15.238491, 16.412905, 17.107746 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.179001, "volume": 498, "typical_volume": 13513.9, "trend": 18.323233, "fair_value": 21.914853, "relative_strength": -22.683141, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.482881, "energy": 29.562858, "activity_lines": [ 15.750534, 15.326546, 16.322448, 16.955234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.935, "volume": 1963, "typical_volume": 13228.8, "trend": 18.0954, "fair_value": 21.871038, "relative_strength": -24.412556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.922463, "energy": 27.455311, "activity_lines": [ 15.953734, 15.417891, 16.215848, 16.801155 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.392, "volume": 2580, "typical_volume": 12323.2, "trend": 17.759833, "fair_value": 21.830154, "relative_strength": -23.446601, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.877662, "energy": 26.208953, "activity_lines": [ 16.158467, 15.630146, 16.16389, 16.691258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }