{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c794c34a-75b9-49be-9e9a-7f6f62a1b839", "symbol": "ARM", "name": "\u00c1rima Real Estate SOCIMI, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 62.384, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.61, "architecture_energy": 35.198, "architecture_maturity": 29.798, "architecture_confidence": 59.697, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.69, "rotation_up": 23.54, "upward_expansion": 17.47, "deceleration": 43.45, "rotation_down": 53.14, "downward_expansion": 54.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.4, 10.62, 10.971143, 11.049849 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.4, "trend_reference": 10.848667, "distance_from_trend": -0.041357, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.159487, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.27459, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.15899, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.276074, "excess_performance": 0.151643, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041357, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111885, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.27459, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188328, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05159, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.267638, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.276074, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.394622, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 538, "relative_activity": 0.285071, "balance": 0.394622, "dry_up": 0.182011, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113905, "annualized_volatility": 0.519833, "from_high_reference": -0.329032, "from_low_reference": 0.518248 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.848667, "fair_value_reference": 8.159487, "structural_low": 9.555, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.018519, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.053436, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.101695, "worst_return": -0.101796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.118644, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.158266, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.093976, "worst_return": -0.221557, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.146959, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.251778, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.084337, "worst_return": -0.209581, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05679, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007009, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010638, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.162162, 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35.47903, "energy": 20.772676, "activity_lines": [ 11.446667, 11.614182, 11.456762, 10.824667 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 10.8, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 2305.5, "trend": 9.983667, "fair_value": 8.041218, "relative_strength": 6.149752, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.597091, "energy": 15.979032, "activity_lines": [ 11.146667, 11.470909, 11.436, 10.884645 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 10.8, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 2173.9, "trend": 10.097, "fair_value": 8.051795, "relative_strength": 2.916476, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.037013, "energy": 15.443544, "activity_lines": [ 10.9, 11.330909, 11.40381, 10.937312 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 11.2, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2159.05, "trend": 10.223667, "fair_value": 8.068782, "relative_strength": 6.17782, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.251716, "energy": 6.263887, "activity_lines": [ 10.793333, 10.938182, 11.221714, 11.101527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.4, "volume": 243, "typical_volume": 1915.2, "trend": 10.667, "fair_value": 8.128077, "relative_strength": -2.331773, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.288511, "energy": 14.365403, "activity_lines": [ 10.626667, 10.789091, 11.130571, 11.090753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.4, "volume": 21, "typical_volume": 1911.25, "trend": 10.767, "fair_value": 8.142821, "relative_strength": -3.264807, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.092444, "energy": 30.524877, "activity_lines": [ 10.486667, 10.687273, 11.047048, 11.073527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.4, "volume": 538, "typical_volume": 1887.25, "trend": 10.848667, "fair_value": 8.159487, "relative_strength": -5.15899, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.60987, "energy": 35.198185, "activity_lines": [ 10.4, 10.62, 10.971143, 11.049849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }