{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c795f6c6-09fe-4f14-b8b0-525a5d791be6", "symbol": "VVU", "name": "Vivendi SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.241, "architecture_energy": 83.749, "architecture_maturity": 20.273, "architecture_confidence": 82.797, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.14, "rotation_up": 10.73, "upward_expansion": 21.78, "deceleration": 34.18, "rotation_down": 80.83, "downward_expansion": 95.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.754467, 1.899636, 2.023769, 2.039527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.716, "trend_reference": 2.088626, "distance_from_trend": -0.178407, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.258248, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.240119, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.298194, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.219924, "excess_performance": -0.284563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.178407, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072109, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.240119, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188548, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.332982, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132836, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.219924, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.325761, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 140975, "relative_activity": 0.69682, "balance": 0.325761, "dry_up": 0.90202, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095481, "annualized_volatility": 0.563068, "from_high_reference": -0.463173, "from_low_reference": 0.076537 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.088626, "fair_value_reference": 2.258248, "structural_low": 1.594, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.005302, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.009034, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.32402, "worst_return": -0.233772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034782, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004911, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.535066, "worst_return": -0.209428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.12092, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.058092, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.56079, "worst_return": -0.071368, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": 15.020586, "energy": 10.841958, "activity_lines": [ 2.208533, 2.224182, 2.154653, 2.15094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.923, "volume": 2007605, "typical_volume": 207562.0, "trend": 2.162361, "fair_value": 2.252724, "relative_strength": -25.396098, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.588345, "energy": 19.885898, "activity_lines": [ 2.116867, 2.173309, 2.137395, 2.134438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.884, "volume": 60300, "typical_volume": 209634.85, "trend": 2.148038, "fair_value": 2.254607, "relative_strength": -25.390255, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.909211, "energy": 41.784092, "activity_lines": [ 2.0304, 2.116273, 2.11759, 2.116479 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.89, "volume": 362754, "typical_volume": 224106.7, "trend": 2.134275, "fair_value": 2.256703, "relative_strength": -25.018086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.880899, "energy": 67.013848, "activity_lines": [ 1.963667, 2.064327, 2.099688, 2.099832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.594, "volume": 165929, "typical_volume": 204456.55, "trend": 2.110448, "fair_value": 2.257109, "relative_strength": -37.198264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.597817, "energy": 86.593172, "activity_lines": [ 1.8192, 1.964091, 2.055117, 2.064975 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.716, "volume": 140975, "typical_volume": 202312.0, "trend": 2.088626, "fair_value": 2.258248, "relative_strength": -33.298194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.240753, "energy": 83.749342, "activity_lines": [ 1.754467, 1.899636, 2.023769, 2.039527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }