{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c797b78b-4fee-4542-836b-4cb097d61c43", "symbol": "CELC", "name": "Celcuity LLC", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.847, "architecture_energy": 61.243, "architecture_maturity": 17.789, "architecture_confidence": 90.588, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.67, "rotation_up": 12.33, "upward_expansion": 13.16, "deceleration": 38.7, "rotation_down": 62.73, "downward_expansion": 84.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 89.441333, 92.700545, 102.495952, 106.017656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 92.78, "trend_reference": 108.815333, "distance_from_trend": -0.147363, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.027596, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.261405, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.595552, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.130867, "excess_performance": -0.31832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147363, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017445, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.261405, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.671961, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.670638, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.130867, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.69414, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3155700, "relative_activity": 0.489776, "balance": 0.69414, "dry_up": 1.314859, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.176152, "annualized_volatility": 0.728209, "from_high_reference": -0.385644, "from_low_reference": 1.088699 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.815333, "fair_value_reference": 41.027596, "structural_low": 78.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.01358, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.039236, "regime_survival": 0.904762, "best_return": 0.441121, "worst_return": -0.330413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.164219, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.10444, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.207378, "worst_return": -0.305534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.117185, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006108, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 4.474576, "worst_return": -0.48307, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.365858, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.722136, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001133, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.122973, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.15, "volume": 193806, "typical_volume": 388905.4, "trend": 10.428, "fair_value": 12.709763, "relative_strength": -24.44756, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 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-64.993698, "energy": 34.900145, "activity_lines": [ 98.915333, 100.917818, 109.244857, 110.387849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 82.62, "volume": 6748664, "typical_volume": 6327476.9, "trend": 109.778667, "fair_value": 40.009583, "relative_strength": -17.612439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.324162, "energy": 41.497138, "activity_lines": [ 93.680667, 96.353455, 106.406333, 108.593462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 86.38, "volume": 7097586, "typical_volume": 6493298.95, "trend": 109.306333, "fair_value": 40.49625, "relative_strength": -14.92799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.717167, "energy": 50.638025, "activity_lines": [ 90.042, 93.473818, 104.080095, 107.083871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 92.78, "volume": 3155700, "typical_volume": 6443153.7, "trend": 108.815333, "fair_value": 41.027596, "relative_strength": -13.595552, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.847137, "energy": 61.242565, "activity_lines": [ 89.441333, 92.700545, 102.495952, 106.017656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }