{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7984373-047c-446f-a123-eb50d75520fb", "symbol": "APCS", "name": "Asia Precision Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.47, "architecture_energy": 56.393, "architecture_maturity": 6.981, "architecture_confidence": 79.394, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.5, "rotation_up": 14.18, "upward_expansion": 26.05, "deceleration": 50.09, "rotation_down": 66.65, "downward_expansion": 51.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.286667, 1.334364, 1.372095, 1.353247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.25, "trend_reference": 1.333, "distance_from_trend": -0.062266, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.173077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.424779, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.614431, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.015748, "excess_performance": -0.208073, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062266, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03031, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.424779, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054736, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226144, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157149, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015748, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.263445, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 169700, "relative_activity": 0.713715, "balance": 1.263445, "dry_up": 0.430037, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064615, "annualized_volatility": 0.452454, "from_high_reference": -0.301676, "from_low_reference": 0.315789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.333, "fair_value_reference": 2.173077, "structural_low": 0.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.042826, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.054153, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.009901, "worst_return": -0.064815, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.014546, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043993, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.10687, "worst_return": -0.077778, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.070823, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.209134, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.030534, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.277778, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.224087, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.277778, "worst_return": -0.277778, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-07-01", "end": "2022-08-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06087, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-08-12", "end": "2022-09-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-09-30", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.172, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104478, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.591667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.140845, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045161, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078947, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113208, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007634, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.268908, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035211, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112676, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.76, "volume": 163500, "typical_volume": 229860.0, "trend": 4.304, "fair_value": 5.005249, "relative_strength": -13.565249, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.947759, 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.462138, "energy": 16.811062, "activity_lines": [ 1.401333, 1.417636, 1.399905, 1.369484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.27, "volume": 106700, "typical_volume": 223800.0, "trend": 1.344, "fair_value": 2.206987, "relative_strength": -23.537728, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.10136, "energy": 14.067424, "activity_lines": [ 1.357333, 1.388364, 1.391952, 1.364366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.26, "volume": 118600, "typical_volume": 229525.0, "trend": 1.338333, "fair_value": 2.190064, "relative_strength": -22.879139, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.951694, "energy": 33.300103, "activity_lines": [ 1.32, 1.36, 1.382667, 1.358946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.25, "volume": 169700, "typical_volume": 237770.0, "trend": 1.333, "fair_value": 2.173077, "relative_strength": -22.614431, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.470235, "energy": 56.392608, "activity_lines": [ 1.286667, 1.334364, 1.372095, 1.353247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }