{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c79a5772-a681-4959-98a0-5d739a8f8aeb", "symbol": "ZROZ", "name": "PIMCO ETF TRUST 25+ YR ZERO CPN US TREAS INDEX FD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.755, "architecture_energy": 75.975, "architecture_maturity": 42.751, "architecture_confidence": 81.13, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.89, "rotation_up": 8.65, "upward_expansion": 17.09, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 77.33, "downward_expansion": 92.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.330667, 60.632468, 61.308466, 61.922621 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 59.02, "trend_reference": 62.746042, "distance_from_trend": -0.059383, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 66.623944, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.114132, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.609228, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.072375, "excess_performance": -0.198, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059383, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016958, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.114132, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028836, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.176092, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041183, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.875394, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2252997, "relative_activity": 0.767, "balance": 0.875394, "dry_up": 1.089357, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033034, "annualized_volatility": 0.154672, "from_high_reference": -0.148996, "from_low_reference": 0.021873 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.746042, "fair_value_reference": 66.623944, "structural_low": 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62.718464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.78, "volume": 3543695, "typical_volume": 3035938.8, "trend": 63.085346, "fair_value": 66.803044, "relative_strength": -13.559922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.044784, "energy": 55.660033, "activity_lines": [ 61.063134, 61.826963, 61.990781, 62.495759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.1, "volume": 3401540, "typical_volume": 3041639.4, "trend": 62.918295, "fair_value": 66.70657, "relative_strength": -16.458782, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.586901, "energy": 76.958697, "activity_lines": [ 59.834, 61.123388, 61.59414, 62.174124 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.02, "volume": 2252997, "typical_volume": 2937415.45, "trend": 62.746042, "fair_value": 66.623944, "relative_strength": -17.609228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.755004, "energy": 75.974615, "activity_lines": [ 59.330667, 60.632468, 61.308466, 61.922621 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }