{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c79d317b-ab14-417b-afa4-e5130e8b0bc0", "symbol": "600129", "name": "Chongqing Taiji Industry(Group) Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.583, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 5.032, "architecture_energy": 18.225, "architecture_maturity": 27.277, "architecture_confidence": 59.218, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.1, "rotation_up": 43.43, "upward_expansion": 35.74, "deceleration": 43.98, "rotation_down": 14.63, "downward_expansion": 41.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.680667, 14.976182, 14.777381, 15.170022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.280001, "trend_reference": 15.887667, "distance_from_trend": 0.024694, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.439876, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.384263, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.431603, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.071836, "excess_performance": -0.028632, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024694, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090852, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.384263, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091781, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094316, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.18959, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071836, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.75905, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 136965785, "relative_activity": 2.020707, "balance": 0.75905, "dry_up": 2.928439, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093508, "annualized_volatility": 0.439019, "from_high_reference": -0.355758, "from_low_reference": 0.375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.887667, "fair_value_reference": 26.439876, "structural_low": 11.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.058173, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.044575, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.238503, "worst_return": -0.302305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.2161, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.24475, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.409091, "worst_return": -0.360304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.180328, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.287006, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.696791, "worst_return": -0.265766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1825, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.064181, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.257143, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.116267, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069242, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110802, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045949, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.179834, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 49.195282, "volume": 36029837, "typical_volume": 40987130.95, "trend": 45.139819, "fair_value": 23.959364, "relative_strength": 26.754809, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 14.96, "volume": 337167392, "typical_volume": 49239724.7, "trend": 16.136667, "fair_value": 27.122314, "relative_strength": -15.549983, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.727225, "energy": 21.959451, "activity_lines": [ 14.660667, 14.179091, 14.626667, 15.255118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.73, "volume": 192420206, "typical_volume": 57064648.7, "trend": 16.025667, "fair_value": 26.875055, "relative_strength": -17.14615, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.288824, "energy": 27.195593, "activity_lines": [ 14.884667, 14.293818, 14.586, 15.164366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.78, "volume": 127418256, "typical_volume": 62300027.05, "trend": 15.946667, "fair_value": 26.657803, "relative_strength": -10.849617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.137926, "energy": 22.934795, "activity_lines": [ 15.33, 14.603091, 14.655476, 15.148516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.280001, "volume": 136965785, "typical_volume": 67781135.55, "trend": 15.887667, "fair_value": 26.439876, "relative_strength": -9.431603, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.032026, "energy": 18.224585, "activity_lines": [ 15.680667, 14.976182, 14.777381, 15.170022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }