{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c79d7a38-12b8-4f3b-876c-ce268121357e", "symbol": "6233", "name": "Prolific Technology Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.696, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.627, "architecture_energy": 73.279, "architecture_maturity": 13.454, "architecture_confidence": 85.435, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.38, "rotation_up": 9.32, "upward_expansion": 16.99, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 72.2, "downward_expansion": 90.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.146667, 22.213388, 23.325947, 23.935486 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.5, "trend_reference": 24.381114, "distance_from_trend": -0.11817, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.646668, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.193145, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.033339, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.080556, "excess_performance": -0.521928, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11817, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033789, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.193145, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108947, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.320333, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085223, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.080556, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.844821, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 885443, "relative_activity": 0.339395, "balance": 0.844821, "dry_up": 0.487076, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098306, "annualized_volatility": 0.399973, "from_high_reference": -0.285207, "from_low_reference": 0.234462 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.381114, "fair_value_reference": 26.646668, "structural_low": 18.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.022356, "positive_rate": 0.34375, "directional_follow_through": 0.65625, "median_excess_return": -0.020479, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.20354, "worst_return": -0.185662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.108132, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.109444, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.49495, "worst_return": -0.262561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.208791, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.226247, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.640404, "worst_return": -0.382632, "sufficient": true 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.455133, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.204846, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.114583, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.165899, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 3151848.65, "trend": 24.576713, "fair_value": 26.711445, "relative_strength": -28.803444, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.480701, "energy": 32.508934, "activity_lines": [ 23.40096, 23.763873, 24.462403, 24.671841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.85, "volume": 2130086, "typical_volume": 3048168.75, "trend": 24.531694, "fair_value": 26.684911, "relative_strength": -34.58877, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.129437, "energy": 70.967773, "activity_lines": [ 22.058978, 22.99901, 23.971601, 24.366892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.75, "volume": 623185, "typical_volume": 2660661.4, "trend": 24.405093, "fair_value": 26.663233, "relative_strength": -32.669114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.10558, "energy": 75.249587, "activity_lines": [ 21.336667, 22.505253, 23.597664, 24.122912 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 21.5, "volume": 885443, "typical_volume": 2608884.3, "trend": 24.381114, "fair_value": 26.646668, "relative_strength": -32.033339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.627071, "energy": 73.278982, "activity_lines": [ 21.146667, 22.213388, 23.325947, 23.935486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }