{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c79dfb5f-b901-4550-b3b9-fc8a59ceb2c7", "symbol": "RHFL", "name": "Reliance Home Finance Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -78.024, "architecture_energy": 83.831, "architecture_maturity": 94.976, "architecture_confidence": 86.099, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.28, "rotation_up": 11.28, "upward_expansion": 19.07, "deceleration": 37.26, "rotation_down": 80.72, "downward_expansion": 97.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.94, 2.015818, 2.087571, 2.172624 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.88, "trend_reference": 2.313, "distance_from_trend": -0.187203, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.415513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.44957, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.718979, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.328571, "excess_performance": -0.284862, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.187203, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124637, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.44957, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108209, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.34719, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013986, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.328571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.044848, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4740386, "relative_activity": 2.445559, "balance": 0.044848, "dry_up": 1.392442, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069967, "annualized_volatility": 0.495139, "from_high_reference": -0.658802, "from_low_reference": 0.032967 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.313, "fair_value_reference": 3.415513, "structural_low": 1.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.009009, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.017082, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.615385, "worst_return": -0.26652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.04878, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.076233, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.231278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019397, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031393, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.902439, "worst_return": -0.250814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100257, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.344828, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.6, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.253304, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.809464, "energy": 46.742672, "activity_lines": [ 2.085333, 2.119818, 2.174048, 2.258925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.96, "volume": 2022104, "typical_volume": 1831244.45, "trend": 2.372333, "fair_value": 3.421154, "relative_strength": -32.36294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.025202, "energy": 60.910825, "activity_lines": [ 2.032, 2.086545, 2.146619, 2.230237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.94, "volume": 1740673, "typical_volume": 1701345.75, "trend": 2.340667, "fair_value": 3.415641, "relative_strength": -33.399693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.619824, "energy": 70.374076, "activity_lines": [ 1.988, 2.054545, 2.118143, 2.202344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.88, "volume": 4740386, "typical_volume": 1938365.05, "trend": 2.313, "fair_value": 3.415513, "relative_strength": -34.718979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.024026, "energy": 83.830566, "activity_lines": [ 1.94, 2.015818, 2.087571, 2.172624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }