{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7a14cac-88b0-4c1b-8a6d-b1fd9c2ef736", "symbol": "002507", "name": "Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.931, "architecture_energy": 21.908, "architecture_maturity": 89.121, "architecture_confidence": 81.162, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.1, "rotation_up": 34.21, "upward_expansion": 20.58, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 28.38, "downward_expansion": 59.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.610667, 11.461818, 11.57426, 11.78944 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.46, "trend_reference": 12.096392, "distance_from_trend": -0.05261, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.79742, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104507, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.493079, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.119039, "excess_performance": -0.126438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05261, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033235, "read": "Falling" 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10.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.003895, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 5.4e-05, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.150943, "worst_return": -0.15147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.060667, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.021566, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.288303, "worst_return": -0.18255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.059801, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062646, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.187241, "worst_return": -0.160125, "sufficient": true }, { 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11.02, "volume": 40241577, "typical_volume": 45459806.55, "trend": 12.221201, "fair_value": 12.924918, "relative_strength": -20.286224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.459223, "energy": 87.14286, "activity_lines": [ 11.127333, 11.333577, 11.66367, 11.930102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.5, "volume": 62906232, "typical_volume": 45918887.85, "trend": 12.194604, "fair_value": 12.891229, "relative_strength": -8.048441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.580577, "energy": 56.585229, "activity_lines": [ 11.212, 11.331539, 11.619611, 11.883573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.36, "volume": 69831176, "typical_volume": 44767509.8, "trend": 12.144341, "fair_value": 12.859752, "relative_strength": -8.996417, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.37994, "energy": 45.354265, "activity_lines": [ 11.269333, 11.317382, 11.56959, 11.829727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.19, "volume": 79399021, "typical_volume": 45168262.0, "trend": 12.130118, "fair_value": 12.830779, "relative_strength": -0.412829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.562602, "energy": 14.454793, "activity_lines": [ 11.606667, 11.461455, 11.605299, 11.832673 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.46, "volume": 70099475, "typical_volume": 42375262.9, "trend": 12.096392, "fair_value": 12.79742, "relative_strength": -10.493079, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.930897, "energy": 21.907688, "activity_lines": [ 11.610667, 11.461818, 11.57426, 11.78944 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }