{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7a8f552-3072-40d3-9858-a6e3feb64414", "symbol": "EPV", "name": "PROSHARES ULTRASHORT FTSE EUROPE", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.821, "architecture_energy": 73.908, "architecture_maturity": 41.631, "architecture_confidence": 91.493, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.39, "rotation_up": 18.71, "upward_expansion": 15.29, "deceleration": 39.15, "rotation_down": 68.17, "downward_expansion": 90.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.541107, 17.881112, 18.393828, 18.982789 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.7, "trend_reference": 19.541001, "distance_from_trend": -0.145387, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.183687, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.464464, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.295859, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.141742, "excess_performance": -0.267367, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.145387, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071368, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.464464, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034692, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.302959, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027372, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.141742, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.945857, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70782, "relative_activity": 0.376832, "balance": 0.945857, "dry_up": 0.4068, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05797, "annualized_volatility": 0.362795, "from_high_reference": -0.352848, "from_low_reference": 0.006024 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.541001, "fair_value_reference": 31.183687, "structural_low": 16.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.028933, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": -0.047238, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.261228, "worst_return": -0.184909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.039111, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.116258, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.199087, "worst_return": -0.200872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.130637, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.232347, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.20597, "worst_return": -0.228496, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 219290.55, "trend": 19.908077, "fair_value": 31.66356, "relative_strength": -23.386645, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.880088, "energy": 50.218908, "activity_lines": [ 18.233374, 18.415389, 18.998975, 19.424979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.35, "volume": 62360, "typical_volume": 213169.75, "trend": 19.801437, "fair_value": 31.519647, "relative_strength": -21.736702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.29418, "energy": 50.155969, "activity_lines": [ 18.251953, 18.36237, 18.859269, 19.324458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.48, "volume": 112050, "typical_volume": 205303.25, "trend": 19.674427, "fair_value": 31.353881, "relative_strength": -25.336809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.159492, "energy": 54.621489, "activity_lines": [ 17.981993, 18.18074, 18.651608, 19.174688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.7, "volume": 70782, "typical_volume": 187834.2, "trend": 19.541001, "fair_value": 31.183687, "relative_strength": -30.295859, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.821144, "energy": 73.907971, "activity_lines": [ 17.541107, 17.881112, 18.393828, 18.982789 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }