{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7aefa5e-dc0d-494e-aa80-f4439b417348", "symbol": "UMMA", "name": "WAHED DOW JONES ISLAMIC WORLD ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.627, "architecture_energy": 21.482, "architecture_maturity": 65.71, "architecture_confidence": 84.226, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.71, "rotation_up": 22.05, "upward_expansion": 54.15, "deceleration": 90.96, "rotation_down": 32.91, "downward_expansion": 17.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.394567, 37.000308, 36.808086, 35.832282 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 37.044, "trend_reference": 34.624674, "distance_from_trend": 0.069873, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.241211, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.411673, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.370361, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.141042, "excess_performance": -0.046411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069873, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088141, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.411673, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05266, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.023704, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025729, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.141042, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.738144, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 247381, "relative_activity": 1.05926, "balance": 0.738144, "dry_up": 0.871063, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061098, "annualized_volatility": 0.272839, "from_high_reference": -0.107919, "from_low_reference": 0.452739 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.624674, "fair_value_reference": 26.241211, "structural_low": 29.4041, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.057054, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.014624, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.149117, "worst_return": 0.022817, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.084613, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.028802, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.300595, "worst_return": 0.029266, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.173905, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.075001, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.280324, "worst_return": 0.067485, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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25.952206, "relative_strength": 3.767039, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.237621, "energy": 28.787778, "activity_lines": [ 37.396367, 37.700679, 36.521297, 35.438722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.6505, "volume": 157488, "typical_volume": 237099.35, "trend": 34.227862, "fair_value": 26.040304, "relative_strength": 4.611283, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.531274, "energy": 22.634855, "activity_lines": [ 36.597247, 37.353694, 36.580353, 35.543468 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.0867, "volume": 197587, "typical_volume": 230256.1, "trend": 34.426219, "fair_value": 26.137283, "relative_strength": 5.046114, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.809802, "energy": 21.789423, "activity_lines": [ 36.248913, 37.08558, 36.660778, 35.663393 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.044, "volume": 247381, "typical_volume": 233541.4, "trend": 34.624674, "fair_value": 26.241211, "relative_strength": 2.370361, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.627002, "energy": 21.48192, "activity_lines": [ 36.394567, 37.000308, 36.808086, 35.832282 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }