{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7be29c4-6f19-40c8-882a-8ebc6c609d92", "symbol": "OIBR3", "name": "Oi S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.29, "architecture_energy": 24.29, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.889, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.22, "rotation_up": 27.85, "upward_expansion": 21.34, "deceleration": 41.87, "rotation_down": 24.31, "downward_expansion": 57.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.125333, 0.122545, 0.124571, 0.133269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.13, "trend_reference": 0.144333, "distance_from_trend": -0.099307, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.926328, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.955576, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -48.389965, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.277778, "excess_performance": -0.220729, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099307, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144269, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.955576, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00739, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.4839, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198766, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.277778, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.953508, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2506700, "relative_activity": 0.802161, "balance": 0.953508, "dry_up": 0.827009, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071006, "annualized_volatility": 1.004609, "from_high_reference": -0.80303, "from_low_reference": 2.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.144333, "fair_value_reference": 2.926328, "structural_low": 0.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 59, "median_return": -0.037383, "positive_rate": 0.288136, "directional_follow_through": 0.610169, "median_excess_return": -0.052899, "regime_survival": 0.949153, "best_return": 0.9375, "worst_return": -0.742857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.237327, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.26412, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.713163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.462149, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.477945, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": -0.076562, "worst_return": -0.751269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.252525, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.362745, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 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0.141527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.12, "volume": 1930100, "typical_volume": 3561020.0, "trend": 0.151, "fair_value": 3.185944, "relative_strength": -60.50552, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.530588, "energy": 48.512179, "activity_lines": [ 0.118, 0.12, 0.129143, 0.139376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.12, "volume": 2432100, "typical_volume": 3457485.0, "trend": 0.149333, "fair_value": 3.118123, "relative_strength": -57.862042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.084167, "energy": 45.290963, "activity_lines": [ 0.118667, 0.119455, 0.127143, 0.137376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.13, "volume": 3050900, "typical_volume": 3194200.0, "trend": 0.148, "fair_value": 3.052931, "relative_strength": -52.775939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.686637, "energy": 28.715222, "activity_lines": [ 0.122667, 0.121091, 0.126429, 0.136129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.12, "volume": 2347700, "typical_volume": 3129795.0, "trend": 0.146333, "fair_value": 2.988315, "relative_strength": -55.665258, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.867578, "energy": 31.270277, "activity_lines": [ 0.122667, 0.120727, 0.124905, 0.134323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.13, "volume": 2506700, "typical_volume": 3124935.0, "trend": 0.144333, "fair_value": 2.926328, "relative_strength": -48.389965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.290182, "energy": 24.289511, "activity_lines": [ 0.125333, 0.122545, 0.124571, 0.133269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }