{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7c283ff-2c34-4ea9-b775-1ba4cd1e9c0c", "symbol": "QIA", "name": "Qiagen N.V.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 60.736, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.512, "architecture_energy": 57.394, "architecture_maturity": 7.398, "architecture_confidence": 63.805, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.05, "rotation_up": 70.72, "upward_expansion": 57.11, "deceleration": 16.13, "rotation_down": 14.53, "downward_expansion": 27.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.167999, 35.35367, 33.751912, 34.2114 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 36.459999, "trend_reference": 35.833849, "distance_from_trend": 0.017474, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.524891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.053599, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.01475, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.155432, "excess_performance": -0.220072, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017474, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041387, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.053599, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.228548, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100148, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.189778, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.155432, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.456927, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3223810, "relative_activity": 1.209624, "balance": 3.456927, "dry_up": 1.229572, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048931, "annualized_volatility": 0.327189, "from_high_reference": -0.233953, "from_low_reference": 0.322932 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.833849, "fair_value_reference": 38.524891, "structural_low": 27.559999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.000251, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.013031, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.050675, "worst_return": -0.111533, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.044557, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.098374, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.053109, "worst_return": -0.293735, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.049341, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.123113, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.038934, "worst_return": -0.212335, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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38.576469, "relative_strength": -6.802152, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 14.095045, "energy": 37.295493, "activity_lines": [ 35.816749, 34.471323, 33.186655, 34.204082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.72, "volume": 3237279, "typical_volume": 2676097.15, "trend": 35.992849, "fair_value": 38.542625, "relative_strength": -9.807521, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.887139, "energy": 46.595887, "activity_lines": [ 35.927623, 34.894587, 33.433295, 34.181262 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.459999, "volume": 3223810, "typical_volume": 2665134.3, "trend": 35.833849, "fair_value": 38.524891, "relative_strength": -10.01475, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.512321, "energy": 57.393677, "activity_lines": [ 36.167999, 35.35367, 33.751912, 34.2114 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }