{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7d71e20-1577-4ef2-87e6-6cf8bbeb19c3", "symbol": "4536", "name": "Topkey Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 61.278, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.321, "architecture_energy": 67.177, "architecture_maturity": 20.745, "architecture_confidence": 69.344, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.02, "rotation_up": 69.17, "upward_expansion": 87.83, "deceleration": 50.07, "rotation_down": 17.94, "downward_expansion": 12.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 168.833333, 166.776821, 161.668546, 158.123064 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 172.0, "trend_reference": 155.050973, "distance_from_trend": 0.109313, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 166.767667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.031375, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.850481, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093586, "excess_performance": -0.252146, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.109313, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017584, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.031375, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094901, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.228505, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151271, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093586, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.554619, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 893409, "relative_activity": 0.765399, "balance": 2.554619, "dry_up": 1.092509, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035071, "annualized_volatility": 0.184417, "from_high_reference": -0.081722, "from_low_reference": 0.227495 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 155.050973, "fair_value_reference": 166.767667, "structural_low": 140.122803, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.028174, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": -0.060271, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.16338, "worst_return": -0.100858, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.054394, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.05302, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.126761, "worst_return": -0.165236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.105719, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.233199, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.230769, "worst_return": -0.224128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-08-07", "close": 170.0, "volume": 1655277, "typical_volume": 1160340.45, "trend": 154.364228, "fair_value": 166.441205, "relative_strength": -24.181675, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.122704, "energy": 76.361697, "activity_lines": [ 166.865107, 164.306433, 158.905694, 156.228295 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 166.5, "volume": 968083, "typical_volume": 1151179.45, "trend": 154.76686, "fair_value": 166.592311, "relative_strength": -27.278598, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.180648, "energy": 58.169331, "activity_lines": [ 167.033333, 165.147102, 160.082344, 157.011248 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 172.0, "volume": 893409, "typical_volume": 1167245.5, "trend": 155.050973, "fair_value": 166.767667, "relative_strength": -22.850481, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.321484, "energy": 67.176643, "activity_lines": [ 168.833333, 166.776821, 161.668546, 158.123064 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }