{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7d7dd3c-a303-4da3-b1fd-189ee5f6355b", "symbol": "300952", "name": "Jiangsu Hanvo Safety Product Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.797, "architecture_energy": 68.836, "architecture_maturity": 36.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.47, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 16.72, "upward_expansion": 14.4, "deceleration": 43.46, "rotation_down": 66.24, "downward_expansion": 87.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.496, 17.389636, 20.053772, 22.1181 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.290001, "trend_reference": 25.246799, "distance_from_trend": -0.315161, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.169966, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.04843, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.701602, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.504328, "excess_performance": -0.511728, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.315161, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06248, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.04843, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.545584, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307016, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213509, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.504328, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.501353, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22576495, "relative_activity": 0.771378, "balance": 0.501353, "dry_up": 0.941661, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165815, "annualized_volatility": 0.571225, "from_high_reference": -0.565845, "from_low_reference": 0.181011 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.246799, "fair_value_reference": 18.169966, "structural_low": 14.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.035308, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": 0.077974, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.343711, "worst_return": -0.136458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.186509, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.143416, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.207003, "worst_return": 0.015773, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.27708, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.170704, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.278877, "worst_return": 0.078338, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 29896909.8, "trend": 25.954323, "fair_value": 18.148301, "relative_strength": -37.975148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.553418, "energy": 66.580938, "activity_lines": [ 17.068667, 18.488594, 21.223964, 23.303494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.93, "volume": 24559256, "typical_volume": 29583004.1, "trend": 25.63929, "fair_value": 18.157118, "relative_strength": -33.061127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.038049, "energy": 69.250823, "activity_lines": [ 16.515333, 17.706545, 20.545864, 22.656763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.290001, "volume": 22576495, "typical_volume": 29267739.2, "trend": 25.246799, "fair_value": 18.169966, "relative_strength": -30.701602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.797458, "energy": 68.835599, "activity_lines": [ 16.496, 17.389636, 20.053772, 22.1181 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }