{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c7d9ed54-7121-44e5-a9a6-c8d9bd12b30d", "symbol": "XUH", "name": "iShares Core S&P U.S. Total Market Index ETF (CAD-Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.708, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.825, "architecture_energy": 59.285, "architecture_maturity": 62.323, "architecture_confidence": 67.304, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.88, "rotation_up": 51.94, "upward_expansion": 80.14, "deceleration": 68.68, "rotation_down": 27.95, "downward_expansion": 9.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.002667, 59.732702, 59.170705, 58.06478 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 61.560001, "trend_reference": 56.862393, "distance_from_trend": 0.082614, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.680292, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.291099, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.483918, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.10896, "excess_performance": -0.011461, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082614, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029703, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.291099, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009308, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014839, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004681, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10896, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.016544, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8500, "relative_activity": 0.375442, "balance": 4.016544, "dry_up": 1.011484, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018791, "annualized_volatility": 0.139538, "from_high_reference": -0.002754, "from_low_reference": 0.220218 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.862393, "fair_value_reference": 47.680292, "structural_low": 50.450001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.011032, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.006261, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.06466, "worst_return": -0.047561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.049959, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": 0.004083, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.082855, "worst_return": -0.077095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.07237, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.023065, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.134696, "worst_return": -0.170044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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55.783441, "fair_value": 46.650837, "relative_strength": -2.336973, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.252901, "energy": 61.719577, "activity_lines": [ 59.307252, 58.989999, 57.231198, 56.512424 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 58.529999, "volume": 6000, "typical_volume": 25505.0, "trend": 55.906707, "fair_value": 46.793049, "relative_strength": -3.697252, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.451395, "energy": 51.73005, "activity_lines": [ 59.034198, 58.99104, 57.464115, 56.689621 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 60.0, "volume": 1800, "typical_volume": 24325.0, "trend": 56.072668, "fair_value": 46.947484, "relative_strength": -1.858155, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.853975, "energy": 58.288286, "activity_lines": [ 59.29724, 59.226991, 57.822659, 56.953705 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 60.189999, "volume": 22600, "typical_volume": 24860.0, "trend": 56.257239, "fair_value": 47.097349, "relative_strength": -1.530296, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.128431, "energy": 65.989928, "activity_lines": [ 59.636238, 59.440878, 58.173552, 57.219339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 59.34, "volume": 35400, "typical_volume": 25430.0, "trend": 56.411154, "fair_value": 47.239898, "relative_strength": -2.61672, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.680916, "energy": 60.422967, "activity_lines": [ 59.598727, 59.452312, 58.419978, 57.418227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.91, "volume": 3100, "typical_volume": 22635.0, "trend": 56.526516, "fair_value": 47.377325, "relative_strength": -3.386053, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.798271, "energy": 52.977404, "activity_lines": [ 59.400666, 59.372159, 58.604179, 57.579443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.16, "volume": 44600, "typical_volume": 23600.0, "trend": 56.670756, "fair_value": 47.51928, "relative_strength": -2.38916, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.701952, "energy": 42.39555, "activity_lines": [ 59.322667, 59.33369, 58.787998, 57.749345 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.560001, "volume": 8500, "typical_volume": 22640.0, "trend": 56.862393, "fair_value": 47.680292, "relative_strength": -1.483918, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.824826, "energy": 59.285022, "activity_lines": [ 60.002667, 59.732702, 59.170705, 58.06478 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }